Doubts might creep into your thoughts
It’s a good time to be a fan of the Dallas Mavericks.
An impressive 2004-25 Finals run happened! Dallas has a remade and somewhat proven roster with young talented players still not yet in their prime. A big-name Free Agent in Klay Thompson signed and he’s in it for basketball reasons and not just for a fat paycheck. There’s a clear hierarchy and organization in the Maverick front office staffed by people who are respected around the league for their expertise.
All the things that we’ve been pining for in the post-Dirk era. Everything is awesome! Right?Right?
Well…
It might be awesome right now, but as sports fans, we all know how quickly things can turn. One only needs to look to two seasons ago when they failed to make the playoffs after a Western Conference Finals run. Granted, there were extenuating circumstances that don’t need to be rehashed at this point in that instance. The fact is that good things aren’t necessarily lasting.
In that vein, let me put my cynic hat on and look at all the things that can derail our happiness. Here are some things to dread for the upcoming season.
Injuries
You can’t dread anything more than this right? This past regular season was a cluster$%&* of the most random incidents that sapped the team of any semblance of consistency. It took one of the craziest runs to end the season (coincidentally when everyone was healthy) for all of us to breathe peacefully, which was promptly followed by Luka getting injured in Game 3 against the Clippers. Kleber then goes down in Game 6.
The fact that Luka and the Mavs did what they did is a testament to how well the Front Office has put the team together. And some good fortune of course.
And while the new players added to the roster are promising regarding what they can contribute on the court, we should still be worried about their injury history. Both Grimes and Thompson have lost significant time in the past few seasons through injury and the Mavericks are counting on at least one of them to play a significant role in the coming season.
While the Mavericks are probably a top-four team in a loaded Western Conference, we should be dreading the possibility of injuries to Luka, Kyrie, Klay, or Lively. The margins during an absolute slog of a regular season are going to be finer than ever this time around, and that just means that the Mavericks will need everyone in peak conditions as much as humanly possible.
Luka Doncic (and his fitness level)
This is not a slight against the franchise superstar (Or Baby GOAT as I like to call him). In fact, his consistent progression from his rookie year would indicate that we’re in for an even better one.
The fact of the matter is that this is not guaranteed. What if things regress for the first time in his NBA career? How does he and the Mavericks as a whole deal with that?
We would all love for him to be ‘@#$hole Luka’ throughout the season with it culminating in another Finals run and the MVP Trophy that he was denied last season (Bugger off Bontemps and his moronic straw polls!), but is there a possibility that the grind of the season wears on him a little too much and he buckles under that load?
Luka’s fitness in general and towards the end of the Finals run was a hotly debated topic. Back-to-back summers of national team duty sapped into any semblance of recovery time for Doncic which inevitably led to him not being in the greatest physical shape to start the season. I, for one, was a bit glad that Slovenia didn’t make it to the Olympics because it meant that Doncic had more time to rest his body and recover from the litany of injuries sustained during the playoff run. I’m a selfish MFFL. Sue me.
Luka also needs to start taking things on the court more seriously in some respects. The man is a savant whose talent alone puts him in the top 5 players in the league. It’s the other stuff that matters which he is lacking in some respects. One would think that with Lebron being one of his idols he would pay close attention to how James takes care of his body to remain in peak condition for as long as possible. He’s entering his prime now. It’s go time. Even Zion Williamson is taking things more seriously concerning his health and fitness.
This is the most talented roster that the Mavericks have assembled since the 2011 Title run, It still needs Luka to be at his best for the Mavericks to win it all.
An Insanely Loaded Western Conference
This might be the most insane Western Conference in the history of the NBA.
While the Mavericks can safely be considered one of the top 4 teams in the West (some would argue top 2 behind Oklahoma City), it is also the most daunting regular season that they would probably face ever.
A legit 13 teams are competing for 8 spots, and nothing is guaranteed. There will be no nights off for experimentation like Jason Kidd likes to do in the first half of the season. We cannot rely on a dominant stretch run to sneak into the top 6.
The Thunder have reloaded. The Wolves have added for the future while Ant seems to be taking the next step. Ja Morant is back (For how long though?). Denver even without depth is a scary opposition. The Rockets could take the next step or even trade for a superstar. The Kings could figure things out again after a down year. Chris Paul could help elevate Wemby into the next stage of his evolution. Mike Budenholzer might be the key to unlocking the top-heavy Phoenix Suns. The Pelicans could improve on last year’s promising performance and take the next step (Although their Center depth is a little scary). The Clippers might use the boost from the new stadium to figure things out. The Warriors might have one final insane run in them. And the Lakers? Nah. The Lakers are probably going to regress dramatically. Hooray!
This just means that the Mavericks & Jason Kidd need to take the regular season as seriously as possible. Except for the NBA Cup. Screw that. Take the days off.
It would be amazing if the Mavericks actually had home court in the playoffs for once and did not have to play with that disadvantage constantly.
A bad on-court fit
The Mavericks signed Klay Thompson as the missing piece of the puzzle to elevate this team to glory. Thompson is one of the best 3-point shooters in league history and with 4 titles, a valued locker room voice for what remains a fairly young squad. Kyrie, Klay and Kleber are the only rotation players above the age of 30.
I’m not disputing the off-court fit. Klay has done a lot to fit in and ingratiate himself with Mavs fans and is doing his best to genuinely be the player we’re all hoping for him to be.
But we won’t know for sure until the season kicks off Oct. 24th against the Spurs. What if his play last year was the first step in his decline? What if he’s not able to adjust from the movement-driven Warriors offense that he’s known all career long to the heliocentric offense that Dallas and Doncic like to operate?
We thought Kristaps Porzingis was the other half at one point only for that to sputter and die out meekly. There were a lot of other issues at play in that case, but still. No fit is perfect and a lot of adjustments will be required to fit Klay into the fold. I’m still terrified of the multiversal outcome where it doesn’t work. (I mean, imagine listening to Jason Timpf going on about how he was right. Ugh!)
A Lack of Development
The Mavericks achieved a lot with a roster completely retooled at the trade deadline and a rookie center as one of the key defensive pieces. That retooled roster included a lot of pieces which weren’t necessarily finished products. Nico Harrison himself was talking about the Mavericks being “built for the next three playoff runs”.
We all should dread the fact that these pieces don’t necessarily take the next step leaving Luka, Kyrie (and Klay) to shoulder a significant burden once again. We know that they’re capable of it. It would just be nice if they didn’t have to. Like PJ during the Thunder series. Or DJJ during the Minnesota series.
What if Lively doesn’t take the next step? By all accounts, he’s a smart, mature kid who loves the game and works hard at his game. His improvement over the season – from getting punked by Rudy Gobert in Abu Dhabi to dominating him in the Conference Finals – was fantastic to watch. What if that’s his ceiling though?
What if PJ, Gafford & Hardy don’t develop either? Will Washington remain a defensive bulldog and cult hero with an inconsistent jump shot? Will Gafford build on his existing game? Will Hardy generate some consistency in his game and finally break into the rotation?
The Mavericks have a crazy amount of talent for the first time in a long time. The scary thought is that they peaked with that Finals run and there’s nothing left to give.
I might just be overthinking things way too much. I’m the kind of guy who says ‘We’re not winning this’ the moment that the Mavericks go down in any game. All of these things might not necessarily come true or have any impact on the coming season and we’ll all be here in June celebrating as the Mavericks hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy after thrashing the Celtics. Until then, one can’t help but bite one’s fingernails in dread, hoping that the worst will not occur.