Doncic, unfairly, may never win it
When I wrote this piece initially, it was the before times – Luka Doncic was still the face of the franchise; we’re talking mid-November. Back then, there was a lot of talk about the MVP discussion. The lingering frustration that his incredible 2023-2024 regular season was brushed under the carpet was very real.
Now things are different. Priorities change.
A hollow feeling has set in.
I’m not going to talk about the trade itself. Instead, consider this a study of the Doncic ghost, and his fascinating Most Valuable Player campaigns. It’s easy to forget how incredible he was, for long stretches.
In the article, I propose that he could have won two (yes two) MVP awards (trust me, I bring receipts). A future individual triumph will not happen in Dallas now, but he created a glorious past that is worthy of reminiscence. This is an investigation of the superstar and the lost MVP trophy that he should have received while wearing a Mavericks uniform.
Present Day
This year is the worst I have seen Luka play. It was a rough start, and his Laker performances have been very underwhelming. Quite terrible and yes he seems out of shape. In my opinion, he hasn’t seemed right since the multiple pain killing injections he took in the Finals last season. Whether it’s been conditioning or attitude – something has been off.
But this was supposed to be his year.
The man who wears 77, once again, entered the year as MVP favorite. Unfortunately, poor play and injuries put that to bed.
This does not mean we should forget all the good times.
After all, it was only last season he was the “PRAVI” or real MVP.
Nikola Jokic
The talk around this season’s MVP award made me ponder on the unfairness of past voting.
Of course, the hype around voting is a flawed process, shaped by legacy media who, from their ivory towers, make these important these decisions. Nikola Jokic could have 4 MVP awards sitting on his mantelpiece very soon, while Doncic might have none. This does not feel right to me.
When Jokic first reached the individual mountaintop in the 2020-2021 season, he had never been a serious contender previously. His placing the prior season was a lowly ninth. Not exactly knocking on the door. Certainly not a 5-time, consecutive, All-NBA First Team body of work like someone else.
Luka is not a contender this year. But I could argue he should have more MVP awards than the Joker. Perhaps 2 to 1. I will explain further. And I have receipts.
Nuance
By definition, if you are All-NBA First Team you are not far away from the top distinction. Doncic has been one of the best players in the world since his second season. Granted, his rise has never been linear. As a player, and as an emotional competitor, he has always played in stretches. Mostly unstoppable, at other moments infuriating. I’ll give Jokic this – he is a bastion of consistency.
The Marvelous Second Season
Video of Doncic in that sophomore season is striking. The first thing that stands out is his physique. He is lighter and more dynamic. Then the speed. The dexterity and velocity of his handle is breathtaking. On top of that, he was getting to the rim at a staggering rate.
The Mavs went from recent lottery picks to a 16-5 start. The media, rightly, started to talk of him as an MVP contender. Throughout that season, it’s arguable to say that he was the player that his team relied on the most. On offence, he carried a piano on his back and made it look effortless. Before, and to a certain extent after KP joined mid-season, it was the Luka Magic show, pretty much all the time.
Virtuoso
His heroics in the 2020 bubble tournament were the stuff of dreams. The vaunted Clippers defence, that featured a procession of outstanding on ball defenders, couldn’t stay in front of him.
On a bad ankle he hit that shot, that is still vivid in my mind.
He carried a limited team, without Porzingis, to an unlikely victory. The stat line was 43/17/13. He was shocking the world.
During the commentary of that Game 4 match-up, Jeff Van Gundy seems amazed at the mastery of this very young player. At one point, Doncic, weaving past defenders on the perimeter ended up right under the basket. While surrounded under the hoop, with a sixth sense, he kicks a weighted pass right into the shooting motion of Tim Hardaway. Swish. It was something beautiful, an assist created from nothing.
After Mike Breen called the play, Van Gundy pauses for a moment. Then he says, “That pass right there, that’s legendary stuff right there.” After the season he had, it was not crazy for greatest of all time talk to be floated around. He was regularly being described as the most skilled 20-year-old to ever play the game. The instinctive reaction was that this was a career that would include multiple MVP awards, no question. He finished fourth that year. He was firmly ahead of schedule.
Rules for Me, Not for Thee
Runaway Rookie of the Year, followed by 5 dominant All NBA First Team selections is a historic trajectory. Yet voters have persistently declined to crown him as MVP. Team success is important. However, hypocrisy has reared its ugly head at crucial points too.
When Russell Westbrook won the award in 2016, I was delighted. In fact, his triple double crusade was personally fascinating. It was fun to see the stat line every night and watch a one-man Globetrotters show.
At that point I only had access to highlights, which only showed the three pointers he did make. Also, it neglected to show the questionable rebounding tactics he employed. Regardless, his energy was incredible, and he finished the season with several clutch moments down the stretch. This, probably rightly, sealed the deal over James Harden, who was in his golden era with the Rockets.
Media Shapeshifting
However, OKC finished sixth in the west (47-35). The problem is that voters always promoted the idea that the best player on the best team deserves the award. Or close to that. This is why Steve Nash has as much MVP hardware as Shaq and Kobe combined.
But the press was swayed by the historic nature of the triple double. I didn’t mind, as I believe it’s an individual award. But the voters were breaking precedent. A dangerous move. Now what were the qualifications going forward?
It was an outlier according to the media – one in a million.
Many commentators have admitted in hindsight that they should not have voted for Westbrook, explaining that they were blinded by the triple double lights.
Wait Your Turn?
However, the voters continued with their new, inconsistent, approach. Nikola Jokic is a tremendous basketball mind. A singular, creative force, who makes his teammates better. But he was crowned awfully quickly. Many voters had historically implied in their commentary that you have to earn your turn. Kobe had to wait. In more recent years, as I mentioned, James Harden had to wait too.
But Jokic already has 3 regular season awards despite only 1 truly impressive post season run. He didn’t make his first All Star game until his fourth season. Luka Doncic was at an All-Star level immediately after arriving in the NBA. Remarkably, he was a champion with Real Madrid, and already had a winner’s medal from Euro Basket with Slovenia before he entered the league. For Jokic, his 2020/2021 MVP, his first trophy, is questionable. To be ordained again the very next season in 2021/2022, amongst several other outstanding candidates, seems excessive.
Luka Doncic, during that 2021/2022 season, was arguably a lot more spectacular, than his rival in Denver. Despite entering the season with his usual series of injuries, and missing several games, when did play he was still a very good player, on the run up to Christmas. For example, his game winner against Boston on November 6, 2021, was an MVP calibre moment.
From his trademark left hand step back position, he drained a highlight reel shot. Three players, including highly regarded defenders like Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, could not stop him.
Before last year’s Finals, an article came out on NBC Sports Boston. The article indirectly implies that his career achievements are deserving of more consideration for MVP. Titled, “How Luka Doncic developed his clutch gene at Celtics’ expense”, it details his late game heroics.
“For his career, Doncic has attempted four shots against the Celtics to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes, and he has made all of them.”
Has Jokic made all these game-winning shots? Before last season’s trade deadline, has Luka had much help in winning these important games?
Slow Start
Regardless, the first part of the season was not for him, or the Mavs, truly outstanding. He came in again out of shape. Though not quite as poorly conditioned as the previous year. In fact, that prior season, 2020/2021, he was reported to have come into camp at least 30 pounds more than his usual weight.
Narratives
Doncic deserves blame for these slow starts. Playing hard for Slovenia in the summer, and indulging with food and drink in the aftermath, is part of the problem. His body dramatically changed in the summer of 2020 – and has never been quite as svelte, even in top shape. This is fine, as he became a great post-up player and was naturally growing into his physique.
He had to play into shape to become the player who again was magnificent in the playoffs. Averaging 35/8/10 on over 40% three-point shooting. He took a talented Clippers team to 7 games against the odds.
Pressing The Accelerator
However, in the second part of the 2021-2022 season he was sensational. It was maybe the highest level yet for Luka, until last season. Jokic took an injured plagued roster to sixth. Good work, no doubt.
But in a close boxing match the fighter, who pushes the action, and finishes with more activity, tends to get the decision. On the New Year’s Eve 2021, the Dallas Mavericks beat the Sacramento Kings 112-96. From that day, until the last game of the regular season against the San Antonio Spurs, where Doncic suffered a calf strain, the team put together an all time run.
The Mavericks went 36-12. A 75% winning percentage. The pace is roughly 62-20 over an 82-game season.
And Doncic was electric.
Voters, Are You Watching?
The numbers back up the dazzling play. On February 11, in the first game since KP was moved to Washington, he seemed he hit an extra gear.
The Slovenian superstar laughed his way to 51 points against, of course, the LA Clippers. The devastating onslaught had an astonishing 7 three point makes in just the first quarter alone. Other wins also featured Doncic in high gear.
41/14/7 against Toronto, 49/15/8 versus New Orleans, 35/16/7 on Utah, 34/12/12 on the Lakers (where he took over late to ice the game, with ridiculous shot making), et cetera. On his last full game of the season, against the Portland Trailblazers, he finished 39/11/7 in another win. The Mavs soared to a 52-30 record. The Nuggets trucked along to 48-34, going 8-8 down the stretch. Yet the media seemed to be determined to make Doncic wait his turn. Jokic, who didn’t dazzle in nearly the same way, again was given favorable treatment.
The upcoming playoffs spoke volumes. Denver was quietly defeated, almost getting swept in the first round, losing 4-1. The Mavs got to the Western Conference Finals, over the seemingly unbeatable Suns – partly because of a Luka Special in Game 7.
Doncic finished a distant fifth in voting, despite being on a 52-win team. The voters, who often don’t watch the actual games, made a decision that would have grand consequences in the future.
Not Finished Yet
After the horror show tanking season, Nico Harrison was under pressure. Young and inexperienced, he recovered from early mistakes (the Mavs are still paying JaVale McGee) and quickly rebuilt the roster. Of course, he has now made a self-absorbed and hideous trade, which has shocked a generation of fans.
In the aftermath of the tank, a pick at the end of the lottery was traded back to make the team’s draft opportunities more creative. The move shrewdly turned into Derek Lively. This was a cornerstone selection. Luka Doncic got in the lab that summer. His workout pictures from Slovenia were exciting fans. He also added a personal nutritionist and full-time personal trainer, perhaps because most the people he liked to work with were moved out of the building.
If previous MVP campaigns were not enough, then surely what was coming would be.
Doncic and a Mavs revenge tour was about make impact. What happened last year is indeed a fascinating story. After finishing 11th in the West (38-44), they were about to go to the NBA Finals. He was about to have one of the greatest individual seasons in league history.
Thank you for reading. Please join me for Part 2 of this MVP voting investigation coming up on Thursday, the day of the next Mavericks game. It will be right here on Mavs Moneyball.