Without Luka, it’s a tough pull, but this group has ways it can stay in the fight
As we sit here at the dawn of a new year, many people are starting to put together their list of resolutions for the 2025 calendar year. For the Dallas Mavericks (20-13, 4th in the Western Conference), their resolution is probably as simple as it gets: a clean bill of health and the ability for this roster to play together. However, that is not a reality that they get to work with as the calendar turns over. The injuries and absences are piling up on them once again, forcing them into more of a survival mode. This is still a good roster, though, and there are things that the Mavericks can do to at least tread water while they wait to get Luka Doncic back from his calf strain.
5. Refiring Dante’s inferno
Dante Exum’s return is a large piece of the Dallas Mavericks’ puzzle. Exum was very comfortably Dallas’ third guard last regular season, playing the connector role extraordinarily well. He’s played zero minutes this year due to wrist surgery he underwent during training camp, but he’s now out of his brace and traveled with the team on this four-game road trip. This doesn’t mean Dante will be back within a week, but it’s very likely he’s back within the month. The initial timeline for his return was three months from his surgery date, which was October 9th. That puts a potential return sometime around January 9th, when the Mavs host the Blazers. His return slides everyone back into a more comfortable role and reduces the Mavs’ reliance on Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy.
4. Which guards take hold of the non-Kyrie minutes?
Even when available, Kyrie Irving isn’t going to run 42 minutes in January. For 12-15 minutes per night, the Mavericks will need to piece it together with Irving on the bench. Diving into the numbers, the Mavs are -1.6 per 100 possessions in the non-garbage time minutes without Luka & Kyrie on the floor. The defense is holding up well without them, allowing just 111 points per 100 possessions. As expected, it’s the offense that holds them back, scoring just 109.4 points per 100 possessions.
Which group of guards steps up and delivers some offensive punch during this time? The combo of Spencer Dinwiddie and Quentin Grimes has seen work there, along with Naji Marshall when he’s available. Can Jaden Hardy bring the offensive punch needed? Are we forced to wait on Dante Exum’s return? The answer to that will determine just how much Kyrie has to bear over the next month or so.
3. Win the gimmie’s
There’s no sugarcoating it; the Dallas Mavericks are looking at a tough schedule for the stretch run between now and the All-Star Break. They play the world-wrecking Cleveland Cavaliers twice, the defending champion Boston Celtics twice, the best player in the world Nikola Jokic & his Nuggets twice and the Western Conference-leading OKC Thunder twice before they hit the week-long break. Because of that, they’re going to need to stack the wins when the schedule affords them the chance to. They play games against Portland, Charlotte, Washington, New Orleans and Detroit before the break, and they open against the Pels again immediately after it. That has to be six wins for this team. So long as they can play near .500 basketball throughout the other games, they’ll find their way through this stretch in decent shape.
2. For the love of all that’s good in this world, grab a rebound!
The 2024 Mavericks, after the Gafford & Washington trades, excelled at clearing the defensive glass. They allowed offensive rebounds on just 25% of their defensive possessions, the eighth lowest rate in the NBA from February 6th through the end of the year. However, that strength has turned into a major liability for the 2024-25 Mavericks, as they surrender offensive rebounds at 29.2% as of December 31, good for the 25th best rate in the NBA. Given the fact that the Mavericks play with a traditional big for 48 minutes when fully healthy, this is something that should not happen. However, diving into the numbers shows where this team can improve.
Cleaning the Glass
With Lively on court, obviously the Mavs are good, but most importantly they clear the glass at a better rate. Their OREB rate allowed is 27.6%, which is pretty much league average, isn’t where they were last year but it’s not a bad number. They also get after on the offensive boards at an above average rate, which helps them win the possession battle.
Cleaning the Glass
With Gafford on, both the offensive and defensive rebounding numbers tumble to below league average. Granted, this is not squarely on Daniel Gafford, rebounding is a team effort. But last year, the Mavericks allowed an offensive rebound on just 27.4% of possessions when Gafford was on court. This year’s number? 31.3%. There’s slippage here, and it needs to be corrected for this team to survive without Doncic.
1. Correctly manage the workload for your workhorses
During this month, it’s paramount that the Mavs don’t overload guys like Kyrie Irving & PJ Washington. However, it’s important to not turn one scheduled loss into two whenever you can avoid it. A prime example of this is the Portland & Sacramento games. After an outstanding win in Phoenix, the Mavs faced a butt end of a travel back-to-back with PJ Washington and Naji Marshall suspended due to the fracas with Jusuf Nurkic. This was the spot to accept your loss, rest Kyrie Irving and get ready to face the Sacramento Kings.
Instead, they decided to play Kyrie on the second night of the back-to-back, lost anyways, and then rested him on Monday against the Kings. The issue with that is that the Mavericks lost Klay Thompson due to illness and couldn’t get Dereck Lively back from his hip contusion. Because of that, they went down four-fifths of the starting lineup in Sacramento instead of just Luka. Even after building an eighteen-point first quarter lead, the zombie Mavericks couldn’t hold on. If you have Kyrie Irving in that game, the Mavericks aren’t blowing that lead against a very shaky Kings group. The rest is important, but it’s important to pick the right spots to find it as to not turn one loss into two. Jason Kidd and the Mavericks training staff are now 0-for-1 in that regard. Luckily for them, there are only three back-to-backs on the schedule between now and the All-Star Break, so there won’t be many games the Mavericks are forced to punt on.