Improved three-point defense will flip the script on the Mavs’ .500 season
The Dallas Mavericks hold a 5-5 record after ten games, good for the 11 seed in the Western Conference. Expectations were high coming into the season, but the team still presents as one that is working out various kinks in an effort to find itself. The chemistry that was familiar during last year’s run to the NBA Finals has yet to develop in the early going, as the team works in new faces and works around injuries to key players P.J. Washington and Derek Lively II.
The Mavericks have endured frustrating losses in back-to-back close games by a total of three points. Those two games against the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets were obviously very winnable, as was their second game of the season, also against Phoenix. Two primary factors in their losses are slow starts and the frequency at which they give up offensive rebounds (especially at critical moments). While these two factors are apparent when watching the games, there is another factor I believe to be the true root of the team’s struggles: the lack of defending the three.
On the surface, the Mavericks have a very respectable three-point defense. For the season, they give up 34.2% on threes. The league average to this point is 37.1%. Yet watching the games, it feels like the Mavs get lit up from beyond the arc far too often. So what is the explanation? A further analysis shows:
1. They are getting beat badly on threes by unusual suspects in eight of ten games.
2. They are getting beat badly on threes by usual suspects in those same games.
3. They have salvaged their overall numbers by way of two exceptional defensive performances.
Let’s take a look at where it’s going wrong.
Game 1 – San Antonio Spurs
The Unusual Suspect – Julian Champagnie
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 4.1
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 37.2%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 4-for-8 (50%)
- Notable – Harrison Barnes shot 2-for-5 (40%). The Spurs shot 12-for-36 (33.3%)
Game 2 – Phoenix Suns
The Unusual Suspect – Ryan Dunn (rookie)
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 4.0
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 36.1%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 3-for-6 (50%)
- Notable – Kevin Durant shot 4-for-8 (50%). The Suns shot 14-for-39 (35.9%)
Game 3 – Utah Jazz
The Unusual Suspect – John Collins (bench)
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 2.8
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 35.8%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 3-for-6 (50%)
- Notable – Lauri Markkanen shot 3-for-5 (60%). The Jazz shot 10-for-35 (28.6%)
Game 4 – Minnesota Timberwolves
The Unusual Suspect – Nickeil Alexander-Walker (bench)
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 3.9
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 35.8%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 3-for-5 (60%)
- Notable – Julius Randle shot 3-for-3 (100%). Anthony Edwards shot 7-for-13 (53.8%). The Wolves shot 19-for-39 (48.7%)
Game 5 – Houston Rockets
- Notable – Fred VanVleet shot 0-for-7 (0%). The Rockets shot 8-for-34 (23.5%)
Game 6 – Orlando Magic
- Notable – Jalen Suggs shot 1-for-5 (20%). The Magic shot 8-for-41 (19.5%)
Game 7 – Indiana Pacers
The Unusual Suspect – Miles Turner
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 3.0
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 35.6%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 5-for-8 (62.5%)
- Notable – The Pacers shot 13-for-32 (40.6%)
Game 8 – Chicago Bulls
The Unusual Suspect – Matas Buzelis (rookie, bench)
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 1.2
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 27.3%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 3-for-4 (75%)
- Notable – The Bulls shot 12-for-42 (28.6%)
Game 9 – Phoenix Suns
The Unusual Suspect – Jusuf Nurkic
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 0.7
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 28.2%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 2-for-4 (50%)
- Notable – Kevin Durant shot 3-for-6 (50%). Royce O’Neal shot 4-for-4 (100%). The Suns shot 15-for-39 (38.5%)
Game 10 – Denver Nuggets
The Unusual Suspect – Peyton Watson
- Career Average Three Point Attempts Per Game: 1.7
- Career Average Three Point Percentage: 31.7%
- In the game vs. the Mavericks: 4-for-4 (100%)
- Notable – Nikola Jokic shot 3-for-3 (100%). The Nuggets shot 14-for-29 (48.3%)
The Verdict
Aside from the two games the Mavericks played lock-down defense on threes, the stats are not pretty.
- In all eight of the other games, the Mavs allowed an unlikely three-point hero to emerge for the opponent. Each such player attempted and converted the three well above their career average. In four instances the player was a rookie, came off the bench, or both.
- In six of the eight games, the Mavericks also allowed at least one other opposing player to shoot 40% or more from three.
- In four of the eight games, the Mavericks allowed the opposing team overall to shoot above league average from three.
Against the backdrop of a relatively small sample size, the Mavericks appear to have above average three point defense, but that is largely supported by two excellent games. In reality, they have under-performed the majority of the time, often going so far as to basically get lit up by a player no one saw coming. When the team starts off sluggish and allows the opponent to get easy, often wide-open shots, even the unlikeliest of players will step up to both take and make them. The failure to secure rebounds has frequently lead to the opponent grabbing an offensive board and kicking to an open shooter beyond the arc.
Simply put, the Mavs would do themselves a tremendous favor to respect the three more than they have in the early going. Allowing a star player to get his is one thing, but coupling that with letting another player go well above both his attempts and efficiency is leaving the Mavs in a bad way. If they can secure the perimeter better as they really begin to gel, and get their defensive stalwarts back on the court, we can expect good things to develop. Perhaps they’ll start righting the ship tonight when they face the Golden State Warriors and arguably the best three point shooter in league history.