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Standings Watch – Postseason Prognosis for the Mavericks

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Charlotte Hornets v Dallas Mavericks

Taking a look at how the Mavericks stack up with 22 games remaining in the season

The Dallas Mavericks entered today with a 32-28 record across the first 60 games of the 2024-25 NBA season, after a nice win last night. With 22 games remaining, Dallas currently sits in the Play-In picture at the 9 Seed. Here we will have a look at the current landscape of the Western Conference through a number of lenses, while prognosticating a bit on how things will shake out as the season draws to a close.

The Play-In Teams

Let’s first have a look at the current Play-In standings, with an eye on how many games back of the 6 Seed each team is.

Despite an incredulous litany of injuries and a franchise-altering trade, the Mavericks are right on the doorstep of avoiding the Play-In entirely. A single night of games could propel them into the top 6 teams, which would guarantee them a Playoff spot. Better still, there is finally some distance forming between current Play-In teams and non-Play-In teams. The Phoenix Suns sit at the 11 Seed, but are 4.5 games behind the Mavericks.

The Last 10

The Play-In teams have been virtually neck-and-neck over the last 10 games, with the Warriors faring best, which in no small part contributes to them being the Play-In front-runner of course.

The Warriors are the hottest of the four teams, having won 5-straight. However, the Mavericks have kept the Kings at bay while picking up a single game on the Timberwolves. On one hand, the Mavericks are arguably the most impaired of the four teams due to injuries to key players Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. On the other, they are showing a level of grit and determination that is helping them remain right in striking distance. Whether you view the scenario as glass half full or glass half empty, the reality is that the Mavs are easily the most injured but continue to perform well.

Head-To-Head Records

At this point in the season, all four of these teams have faced each other a number of times. In fact, the Mavericks have only one game remaining against the other three teams combined.

  • Golden State Warriors (2) – Dallas Mavericks (2)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (2) – Dallas Mavericks (1)
  • Sacramento Kings (2) – Dallas Mavericks (0)

The Mavs and Kings face off for the final time this year in just a few days on March 3. As it stands, the Mavs have already lost the tie-breaker between the two teams, but make no mistake this game is absolutely huge on a pure standings basis. The Mavs have also lost the tie-breaker with Minnesota (hence Dallas being the 9 Seed despite a matching record), but a potential silver lining to all of this is that the Mavs and Warriors split. It’s certainly not the worst things to have the most advantageous scenario be applied to the Play-In front-runner, but at the same time, all of these teams are so close to each other that Dallas would certainly love to have a couple of those losses back (especially a 1-point OT loss to the Kings earlier this month).

Strength of Schedule

The NBA was kind enough to provide us a look at the March/April strength of schedule, based on a team’s opponent’s winning percentage as it currently stands (the lower the #, the harder the remaining schedule).

  • 7. Golden State Warriors (#19)
  • 8. Minnesota Timberwolves (#29)
  • 9. Dallas Mavericks (#14)
  • 10. Sacramento Kings (#2)

The Mavs fall reasonably well in this mix, right in the middle of the league pack and better than two of the other three teams in the current Play-In pack. The Timberwolves are of course sitting very pretty, while the Kings are literally on the opposite end of the Minnesota spectrum.

The Clipper Factor

Why wouldn’t the Clippers (potentially) play a part in the Mavericks’ Playoff story? In fact, LA will play a big part with all current Play-In teams. LA will play the Mavericks twice (in a back-to-back), the Kings twice and the Warriors once before all is said and done. To keep things extra spicy, four of those five games take place across the Clippers’ final six games of the season! On the surface, Dallas fans are likely rooting for LA to beat everyone except Dallas in that mix, but consider this – if LA gets wiped out in most/all of those match ups, all of a sudden they may be on the bottom end of the Play-In and one of the current teams is sitting at the 6 Seed.

The Final Word (for now)

All of the above lays the groundwork for the final two months of the season, but there is so much more to come. Between reader comments and follow-up articles by the Mavs Moneyball staff, this is far from the last word on our ongoing Standings Watch.

For my part, I remain optimistic that they will be in the Playoff picture in some way. There seems to be some security of remaining in the Play-In picture purely based on the current gap between the 10 Seed and 11 Seed. Beyond that, the Mavs are playing with a fierce determination and have a reasonably favorable strength of schedule. An early season loss to the Warriors (by 3 points) and the recent OT loss to the Kings (by 1 point) felt foreboding at the time and now look like they could play a bigger role in things than we could have imagined, but consider this: The Kings have the second most difficult schedule in the league from here on out, while the Warriors have a quirky schedule of a 5-game road trip (current), followed by a season-long 7-game homestand, followed by a 6-game road trip. The head-to-head matchups are concerning, but these other teams are not without their own challenges ahead. As it stands, I remain confident the Mavericks could realistically climb as high as the 6 Seed (maybe more?). We’ll be following this closely as we start the stretch run!