Predictions, Calm Resolve, and Which Show Are We Most Excited To See Return
As the ice melts away and the weekend comes to a close, I sit down with MavsMoneyBall colleagues David Trink and Matt Martinez as we thaw out a recurring series from last season, Slacking Off. It is our time to prattle on Slack about the Mavs, the NBA, and anything else that might come up along the way.
Brent Brooks: Hey David and Matt, thanks for joining me. Let’s start with the obvious softball, what is your top-line view of the season so far relative to your expectations going in?
David Trink: I’m disappointed. This team really could have been something special (top 2 in the West, 55+ wins) had it not been for a slow start and injuries. The stretch in mid-November when they won 14-of-17 games was so much fun, and I just know that team is still in there somewhere.
Matt Martinez: I don’t think my expectation of somewhere in the 52-55 win range accounted for potentially disastrous injuries like the ones to Luka and Kyrie the team is trying to wade through now, and it’s frustrating in these moments. The loss to the Kings. The loss to the Nuggets. Those are frustrating moments. But some moments still inspire optimism. I don’t feel great about the team at the moment, right after the Nuggets loss, but they are playing hard and taking nothing for granted, trying to keep their heads above water. Gotta give these guys credit.
Brent: When you are a fan or covering the team or in our cases, both – there is the abstract potential you hold in your mind of the roster’s fullest expression. Then reality chips away and it’s tough. No one else around the league feels sorry for Dallas and it puts a punctuation on just how healthy they were last season outside of Luka in the Finals
Speaking of Luka. How pleased were you at the drop in usage, and the off-ball play? Do you expect that to be the new normal with this group once he returns?
Matt: When healthy, this roster is so deep that yeah I’m comfortable with the decreased usage rate and more off-ball fun from Luka. It also, in theory at least, I realize I’m saying this as he’s on the shelf for a month or more with a calf strain, but in theory, it should help keep him healthier for longer stretches, right? Surely he’s not just snake-bitten with injury troubles that will follow him through his career, right? I have to believe that following that program will help keep him healthier. Maybe it’s not enough on its own — maybe the right kind of offseason work regime and dedication to diet, etc, like Dirk discovered at some point in his career, that’s just as important for Luka going forward.
I’d love for any drop in Luka’s usage to directly correlate with an uptick in Quentin Grimes’ usage if Dallas keeps hold of him.
David: Luka needs his touches. I like that they’re trying to get him off-ball more but he still needs to have the ball in his hands a lot. In my ideal world, when he comes back it will look more like it does when, say, Kyrie Irving and Quentin Grimes or Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie are on the floor. Where the ball is taken out of his hands for primary action but it gets back to him on the swing or secondary motion instead of having him corner sit while Irving or others play one-on-one. This is an indictment of Kidd’s inability to pull them out of hero-ball. I would like to see more flow to the offense all game when Doncic returns.
Brent: In a recent interview that our own Mette Robinson highlighted, Doncic talked about the dark side of fame. I have been thinking about that off and on all day, especially in light of his home being burglarized. Losing your anonymity is a staggering concept. Not being able to walk around the block without privacy – much less the safety concerns. I feel for the guy because you can see on his face he wishes he could have his cake and eat it too as a naturally introverted dude.
My natural impulse is to challenge the notion that he does not take the offseason as seriously as Dirk did but I also realize that is mostly conjecture on my part. Do you guys think he was ready for the season or did playing overseas on the heels of the Finals run to create a scenario where this injury allows him to have a silver lining and reset his body for the playoffs?
David: I don’t think he was ready for the season. He was hurt in training camp and didn’t look like himself until after his first absence. I won’t comment on his off-season training because I simply don’t know, but it does seem like this lack of preparation by him going into the year is a trickle-down from Jason Kidd’s preference to throw away the first 20 games, and therefore Doncic knows he can work himself into shape over that time.
As for a silver lining, I hope so. Although this injury is one that I have had friends have and it just doesn’t go away, so we’ll see.
Matt: Hard to say from where we sit, just observing. What is the right amount of international play? What is the right amount of rest, and how much rest is too much rest in the offseason? Smarter more capable people than me will have smarter things to say. Someone needs to be able to guide Luka in getting ready, in I don’t know, stretching, precise diet stuff a la Tom Brady. He needs to recognize the need for guidance in some of that kind of prep and needs to realize the value in not being left to his own devices. Eager to be even better than the supernova he already is. I’m not sure about a silver lining either. Would love to have a timeline for his return before predicting whether he’s going to be back and better than ever for a potential playoff run. Calf injuries are weird.
Brent: When you rely on youth instead of body prep in the offseason year after year, that dynamic eventually swings against you. To the extent that has happened with Doncic, as you guys say there is no way to truly know for sure. But I was disappointed he was not ready to go because I can’t think of a bigger motivational force than losing the Finals. How much of it is prep? How much of it is the collective toll of a ton of usage in his first few years? and how much if it is just unavoidable bad luck? I don’t have those answers but I do know something has to change or we may be looking at a string of years not being eligible for postseason awards. Yikes.
Tell me about Klay Thompson. From where I am sitting, he has been exactly what I hoped for. A better version of THJ, in the locker room and on the court. Yet when he isn’t able to play like he did in his prime, some section of the fan base wants to launch him into space. Why is a player performing reasonably well not enough these days?
Matt: I think it’s the hot and cold nature of it all. He was 4-of-5 from 3-point range in the first half against Denver, then 2-of-8 in the second half. The game before he was 0-of-4 from deep and looked dreadful in the process. The game before that he was 3-of-6. We don’t as fans do a good enough job of seeing the big picture, especially when the team is down and he’s building a brick wall. He’s been good overall, and he is not paid to be the best shooter in the league. He’s on a very team-friendly deal and statistically is having a similar, if not slightly better year than last year.
David: That’s just the modern online experience. It’s all reactionary. I don’t care about it too much unless I let it inspire me to write something and get my thoughts out. Klay has been exactly what the Mavericks wanted him to be.
Brent: Stars are a reliable floor-raiser but you need guys who can raise the ceiling on any given night and allow the team to shift the metrics in their favor when other aspects of the game are working against them and that is what Thompson can give you on any given night. I am ok with inconsistency – because steady can also sometimes mean steadily mediocre. Variance makes sports exciting.
Tell me about your thoughts on trade season. What are we about to see Nico do?
Matt: Maybe nothing? Says the guy who wrote the thing about the six Mavs most likely to be traded. In my ideal scenario, Nico flips Gafford and Maxi and some other piece for a vaguely useful power forward, leaving enough room to match any offer Quentin Grimes (RFA) may receive in the offseason.
But seriously, this team is already built very well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mavs don’t make any moves at the deadline for the first time in umpteen years.
Brent: If they stand pat, despite reports they are one of the most active teams in exploration, we will hear about how getting Doncic and Irving back are effective huge trade deadline additions. Mark that down.
David: I hope they don’t make a panic trade. I think this team is good enough as is and they just need to get healthy. If they wanna move Maxi Kleber and/or Jaden Hardy for something, go for it. But anything else I am out on.
Matt: The January schedule is about to get a little bit brutal. What’s your level of concern that this team might not be able to dig out of the hole it digs as a result of these injuries?
David: My level of concern is near zero, but maybe there’s a level of concern for my level of concern. I think the way that this team plays without Luka and Kyrie is the same as they play with them and so the fact that their forwards and bigs are healthy is way more important. They are gonna win more games than we think, and I think they may hit their stride at the perfect time once again.
Brent: The most likely scenario is scrambling to stay out of the play-in once the team is back to full strength. The same burst we saw post-trade deadline last year. In an updated, best-case scenario Dallas is playing so well that they become the team no one wants to face in the playoffs.
I just watched the season finale of Landman. Good but overrated. Worth a watch but has me wondering if this is really the best we can do for prestige television this decade. Ya know, shows that get everyone talking the next day like The Wire and Game of Thrones did in the early years. Gosh, I am old. Anything good you guys wanna recommend?
David: I’ll recommend watching the highlights of last year’s playoff run. That was fun.
Matt: My parents and I were just talking about the wobbly nature of the Taylor Sheridan Extended Universe with the end of Yellowstone and yes, we love Landman but it’s not without its major flaws. Prestige TV as a rule might be on its way out as these studios start realizing that massive budget shows aren’t getting the return on investment needed to justify their existence. We’ll never have another Deadwood. We’ll never have another Sopranos. Well, Severance season 2 just started on Apple + and that’s gonna have to sustain me for a while.
Brent: I am stoked for Severance but feel like Apple is an exception right now – they are throwing so much money around to get that service up in the market share game. To have production, cast, and writing all firing at the same time does take talent paired with deep pockets. Most services are nuking shows after two seasons unless they are a smash hit.
The best entertainment is not the most accessible entertainment. Having a piece of art reach mass appeal is usually damning by faint praise. Give me the niche weirdness over cookie-cutter factories any day – and despite the massive budget, Severance is the right kind of weird.
David: I need to finish season one of Severance. It’s on my list.
Brent: Good Grief. Yes, you do. We are gonna wrap this up so David can go watch Severance. One last question.
Will the 2025 Playoffs see the Dallas Mavericks make it past the second round and back into the WCF?
Matt: That was the expectation at the beginning of the year, and now the assumption becomes they’ll have to do it from a tougher playoff seed position after losing ground due to injuries. I do wonder about this. I get the feeling at the moment that something has been lost along the way. There’s a vague sense of foreboding. I guess right now I’m not feeling it, to answer your question, but I’m not a prognosticator, I’m a fan, and as such I reserve the right to change my mind a million times throughout the year. Furthermore, I refuse to be held accountable for any of the crazy things I say along the way. Thank you.
Brent: You assume there are people on the interwebs logging all your takes on MMB to be fired back at you in such case as you are wrong. That would never happen. Ever.
David: The Mavericks are winning The Finals. Book it.
Brent: Mavs Faithful will be overjoyed to read the future foretold. Gosh, I hope David is right. Thanks for hanging with me guys, we’ll do another one soon. Have a great week and Go Mavs.
Matt: Go Mavs!