A new era begins with treacherous waters to navigate this offseason
Last Thursday, superstar forward Satou Sabally announced she is moving on from the Dallas Wings. It isn’t a shocking turn of events, as rumors concerning Sabally’s desire to pursue a new team have been circulating since the end of the 2024 WNBA season. The 6’4” Oregon product is the latest of a long list of star players who have asked out of Dallas in recent years, following in Liz Cambage, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Allisha Gray’s footsteps.
Though Sabally is set to be a free agent, she cannot simply walk away from the Wings; the WNBA’s core designation (similar to the franchise tag in the NFL) prevents her from doing so. On Monday, Dallas officially extended a core qualifying offer to Sabally, giving them exclusive negotiating rights with her in free agency. Sabally can either accept a one-year, supermax contract from Dallas or work with the team to find a suitable trade to a mutually agreeable destination. If we take Sabally’s words from her announcement at face value, the latter of those options is already in the works— the two parties are already facilitating a sign-and-trade deal.
Both Sabally and the Wings have some leverage in this situation. Sabally can block any trade to an undesirable destination if she is willing to sit out the 2025 season without a signed contract. I doubt Sabally would want to take an entire year off, but the threat of doing so could be enough to limit Dallas’ options. The Wings will try to extract as much value as possible in a trade; a player of Sabally’s caliber will surely command a host of suitors and there could be a bidding war for her services. Dallas will and should prioritize the best possible return, even if it isn’t Sabally’s preferred landing spot. Ultimately, I believe the two sides can avoid playing hardball and find a solution everyone is content with.
Which teams are in the mix?
Right now, no one knows where Sabally wants to go. There is widespread speculation about the reigning champion New York Liberty— Sabally’s sister, Nyara, plays there and it’s an obvious winning environment. The Indiana Fever has a gaping hole at the power forward position, and playing with Caitlin Clark is an enticing proposition for any WNBA star. The Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm, and Phoenix Mercury are all in win-now mode and could be wild cards. If Sabally wants out of Dallas and is willing to go to any other winning team, all these teams could make sense.
What would a return for Sabally look like?
It’s a tough question to answer. Emily Adler at The Next recently published a column analyzing the history of star trades in the WNBA, which have been historically rare. Her conclusion stood out to me:
“The biggest takeaway here is that contract details and trade leverage don’t seem to be consistent factors in star trades. The most important thing is just how good the star is and whether there are enough suitors to drive the cost up — or, if the player only wants to play for one team in particular, whether that team has enough assets for the player’s soon-to-be former employer to wring some value out of the deal.”
How much the Wings can get for Sabally depends entirely on how many teams are in play and how she is valued. Though incredibly talented, Sabally has struggled with injuries for most of her career, which could muddy those waters. The situation is complicated further by the expiration of the WNBA’s collective bargaining agreement at the end of the 2025 season. Players are expecting the new CBA to render substantially higher salaries and as a result, most have avoided signing contracts past the 2025 season. Only two players in the league are currently under contract for 2026 (excluding rookie-scale deals), and the 2025 free-agent class is expected to collectively sign one-year deals. So, whichever players Dallas receives in a Sabally trade might not be guaranteed to stick around beyond this year.
With this in mind, it’s clear to me that Dallas should prioritize draft picks and controllable young players in their trade talks. It might be tough to get both. The 2025 class is unusually deep, so that would be my draft compensation focus. If New York is Sabally’s preferred destination, Dallas could ask for Leonie Fiebich (under contract until 2027) and the seventh pick in the 2025 draft. I doubt New York would give up Fiebich, but the Wings’ asking price should start with her. Veteran forward Betnijah Laney-Hamilton might be a more realistic target, though she is a free agent in 2026. Still, getting a great role player and a valuable draft pick would be a solid return. If Indiana gets involved, I’d ask for a package of Lexie Hull (restricted free agent in 2026), Damiris Dantas, the eighth overall pick in 2025, and a future first. Hull is a great perimeter defender and showed flashes of elite spot-up three-point shooting last year, and I’d prefer her over NaLyssa Smith as a trade centerpiece. Beyond those two teams, it isn’t clear who else could get involved or what they’d have to offer.
After Sabally is traded, will Paige Bueckers fill her shoes?
Eventually, Sabally will have a new team and the Wings will net more assets in their war chest. Regardless of the potential return, Sabally’s departure hurts. Dallas has a new, highly respected GM, an exciting young coach, and the number one overall draft pick in a class featuring mega-prospect Paige Bueckers. This was supposed to be a time of boundless optimism for the franchise. Instead, their best player spurned them (again), Bueckers might try to force her way elsewhere, and the new front office is suddenly under tremendous pressure.
If Bueckers uses her unprecedented leverage to refuse Dallas, the Wings must hope Olivia Miles out of Notre Dame declares for the draft. Miles is the best passer in college basketball, can get downhill and easily create space, and has made great strides as a shooter this season. With her and Bueckers at the top of the board, this is a two-player draft for superstar talent. The worst-case scenario would be Bueckers jilting Dallas and Miles returning to school. That would leave the Wings with the likes of Kiki Iriafen (big question marks about positional fit and consistency) Dominique Malonga (uber-talented project with a low floor) or Sonia Citron (elite role player with a limited ceiling) to choose from. That’s not an ideal bunch for a team with the No. 1 pick and a desperate need for star power.
Changing the culture
Coach Koclanes spoke to the media at length in his introductory press conference about the “foundation” he wants to build here. It was a hopeful and inspiring message, and I walked away very impressed with his basketball mind and vision for the team. To succeed, the front office must supply him with the necessary pieces. Star players continually ask out of Dallas because the organization has been characterized by instability and incompetence for a long time. As the Sabally and Bueckers situations underscore, they’re still paying the price for that. This offseason represents an opportunity to slay their demons and kickstart a new era of prosperity. How the Wings navigate the Sabally trade and April’s draft will dictate how quickly they can perform this cultural reset. If they don’t rise to the occasion, they might be the same old Wings.