The staff predicts who will win the coveted NBA Award
Yesterday, we talked about what parts of the Dallas Mavericks season get use the most excited. Today, we’re pivoting to the league at large: Who do you predict will win the NBA 2024-25 Most Valuable Player Award?
Tyler: Luka Doncic is going to win the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award. He’s got a couple things going for him that matter with this award in particular. Most importantly, the Mavericks will be good enough for Doncic to win MVP this year. Assuming health, this is one of the 3 teams that has a realistic shot at the #1 seed in the West. Secondly, Luka finally has the narrative behind him after last year’s run to the Finals. Luka started disadvantaged to Nikola Jokic last year because of the previous season’s disaster, while many felt Jokic should’ve won the award the previous year over Joel Embiid. This year, that isn’t the case.
I look for Luka to average slightly fewer points than last year, but he’ll average over 10 assists per game with the additional shooting added to the roster. I’ll say Doncic wins the award with averages of 31.7 points/9.1 rebounds/10.6 assists per game on a team that wins 55 games. That’s enough to get the job done over 2nd place, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Sudarshan: At this point? I’d say Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as much as it pains me to say it.
We all know that the MVP Award is narrative-based. Many in the media felt SGA deserved it last year and Jokic was given the award to make up for the year before. Like it or not, people like Tim Bontemps and his idiotic straw poll play a major factor in determining who the Award goes to. If the Thunder are in the top-3 seeds in the West (Which they most definitely should be), then the Award will go to SGA as long as he maintains last season’s pace. Too many prominent blowhards in the media are in his corner.
Too many people are on the anti-Luka train for him to win it this season, particularly on the back of that Finals performance. If he gets to the Finals again and plays more solidly on the defensive end (Without the childish antics that he’s prone to from time to time), then he’d probably become the frontrunner for the 25-26 season.
Clint: I’m pretty sure it’s going to be Tim Hardaway Jr. His dad, who is just a wonderful and non-problematic guy all around, shed light on the truth recently. Tim was being held back by Luka Doncic. Now that he won’t have to grapple with being set up for wide open threes by one of the best passers in the NBA who also creates possibly the most space for shooters, he’ll really come into his own.
Isaac: I think everyone’s expecting Luka Dončić to win it and I won’t be surprised if he does, but my pick for MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are going to be desperate to come out swinging as their superstars get another year older and their contending window shrinks. With all the added talent in the East this year, there will be more pressure on them to perform and I think Giannis will respond well and lead that team to 57+ wins in a stronger Eastern conference.
Michael: Some fun with numbers: There are roughly 8 billion people on the planet. About 500 of them play in the NBA. 3 of those 500 will be in the final running for MVP by year’s end. Determining who is truly most valuable among the most elite of the elite is close to impossible and some players are all but guaranteed to be “snubbed.” Look no further than last year where Luka put up a stat line never before seen in NBA history, with 33/9/9, yet received only four 1st Place votes (3rd Place) in MVP voting. The players in front of him, SGA and Jokic, were obviously very deserving and I think this year is going to come down to another impossible choice.
Fortunately, Sam Quinn at CBS did us all a favor and distilled two common denominators seen in every MVP since 2012. All were 1st or 2nd Team All-NBA the season prior, and all were between the ages of 24-28. Players that fit that bill for next season include Brunson, Tatum, SGA and Luka. From that list, I’m taking Luka in a close race with SGA as the two primary front runners. I think the Mavericks and Thunder both perform well throughout the season, and while Luka’s scoring may come down a bit, he may yet be the scoring champ again and see a bump in his assists given his new passing options. I think he edges out the others in terms of personal stats and wins MVP, especially if the Mavs secure a top Playoff seed.
Josh: Trying to predict who will win the MVP feels especially foolish amongst other pro-sports predictions simply because the MVP, especially in the NBA’s case, is such a narrative-driven award. Predicting who will win the NBA MVP feels just as scientific as trying to read a person’s mind to see where they’re going for lunch that day. Luka Doncic put together one of the most individually dominant statistical seasons in NBA history last season and finished third in the 2024 race, with only four first-place votes. This is not an award that is easy to predict.
I’ve said this before on the podcast, on this site, on Twitter, but the simple fact is that a lot of media people do not like Doncic, much like a lot of the media did not like LeBron James in 2011 after he chose to leave Cleveland for Miami. Whether it’s legitimate or not, Doncic detractors have plenty of ammo to choose from, whether that’s Doncic’s playstyle, fitness, defensive lowlights, or his feuding in-game with officials. Doncic could spend an entire year never barking at a referee, but people’s minds have already been made up — first impressions do matter, psychologically speaking.
Having said that, Doncic finally does have more of those outside factors leaning in his favor. Coming off that spectacular regular season, he had his most success in the playoffs so far, with a terrific Finals run that saw him contribute in other ways besides dominating the ball. Doncic also bested other media darlings during that playoff run, including Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and voters do remember those things. If the Mavericks can stay consistent start-to-finish, end the season as a top-3 (or even top-4) seed in the West, and avoid any run-ins with a .500 record near February, then the award should be his. The only thing standing in Doncic’s way if the team accomplishes those regular season goals is a 60-win, juggernaut season by the Thunder, which it will be hard to see voters going any other way than SGA. We’ll see what happens, but pencil me in for Doncic for now. This is the best chance he’s had yet.
Brent: As the resident crusty old man here at MMB, I need to shake my fist at a cloud. MVP talk has lost a lot of meaning for me over the years. It feels like (the worst kind of) a popularity contest. Who won it last year? Can they repeat? No, wait, this dude won it two years in a row but are we really going to give it to him for a third year and put him on in that rarified pantheon? This other guy might be having the best year but his team has a few more losses and let’s set aside the context for those early-season stumbles related to injuries or…Grant Williams.
Sure, I sound salty. Whenever an award so seemingly prestigious is decided by those who either craft narratives or are susceptible to them – and that dynamic is exacerbated by social media pressures – you’ll have an award less connected to what should matter.
Set aside standings and storylines, and just tell me who meant the most to their team. Will we ever see an award that pure again?
David: I want to pick Luka Doncic so very badly. I want him to win one and I want him to do it before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does. But as I am writing my preview for the Thunder’s season and picking over on their team win total, our editor Josh Bowe makes a great point. How does Shai lose if he wins 60 games? He doesn’t. And since I think the Thunder will get to that 60-win mark, I am not going to create a plot hole in my own universe by picking Luka Doncic to win. Unfortunately, I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win his first MVP. We can only hope that that is the only award post-April that comes his way.
Matthew: The MVP will be Victor Wembenyama. The media is eager to crown the all-time talent with awards before he earns them. His placement in the Defensive Player of the Year award despite none of the team defensive success that has been part of the award for the last several years is evidence. The addition of Chris Paul will provide the Spurs with a level of basketball competence that will shock the media. Wembenyama will ride an unexpected playoff birth to this award, along with a Defensive Player of the Year award despite not meeting any of the requirements that have been applied to Luka Doncic for years. Doncic will have a slight dip in individual numbers and the media will point to his improved supporting cast as a reason that he cannot win the MVP because he can’t win the award for the first time while “getting worse.”
Kirk: Kind of hard to top the Wemby pick. I think I’ve settled on Luka Doncic being the MVP. Everyone here has already said why, but seeing him at media day, it felt different. I think this is his year.