One question could define this Mavericks season: How long will Luka be out with this calf injury?

Luka Dončić exited the Mavericks’ Christmas Day loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second quarter with a left calf strain.

When it drizzles in Dallas-Fort Worth, as it did this Christmas, it pours.

Luka Dončić left the Dallas Mavericks’ Christmas Day loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at American Airlines Center late in the second quarter with what was initially called a left calf strain. Despite Kyrie Irving’s best efforts in Dončić’s absence, the Mavs didn’t have enough in the tank to complete a comeback against what has become a middling Timberwolves team the rest of the way. Dončić was leading the team in scoring with 14 points and was 3-of-5 from 3-point range at the time of the injury — it felt like he was going to have another huge game if he didn’t come up lame.

Dončić has battled through several injuries to the same calf muscle in recent years, and reports indicate that this one could lead to a longer stretch without the team’s unquestioned leader than some of his previous nicks and bruises.

ESPN’s Shams Charania and Tim MacMahon both reported after the game that Dončić left American Airlines Center on crutches and would get an MRI on the calf on Thursday. Charania’s report went as far as to indicate that “the Mavericks are bracing for star Luka Dončić to miss an extended period of time.”

“An extended period of time” was almost the exact word-for-word description of Dante Exum’s initial prognosis after the backup guard suffered a wrist injury in October. Exum may return to action in January, but we still don’t know anything more exact than that.

The grade of Dončić’s calf injury will be key to predicting when he might return to action. Calf strains are graded based on the severity of the tear in the gastrocnemius muscle. A grade 1 strain typically requires a few days of rest with minimal activity, allowing a return to light exercise within 1-2 weeks. Grade 2 strains may require 2-4 weeks of rest with limited activity and sometimes require more intensive physical therapy to regain full function, which may push beyond the 2-4 week timeframe. God help us all if we hear anything about a grade 3, which could mean several months off the court. All that medical stuff can be attributed to a simple search on webMD.

Going into the Christmas Day matchup with the Wolves, the Mavericks were 6-2 in games without Dončić this season, but eight games is still a relatively small sample size. If Dončić misses a month or more, how confident are we that the Mavs could continue to be an above .500 team, much less win three of every four like they did earlier this year?

All of a sudden, chatter surrounding MVP ladders and playing enough games to be eligible for postseason awards seem secondary, to say the least. This has the potential to be an injury that defines the Mavericks’ entire 2024-25 season.

“It stings for sure for all of us,” Kyrie Irving said in the postgame presser. “Praying for Luka just to have a speedy recovery. However long the timetable is, we’re going to have to adjust. It’s just the nature of the business. Hopefully, he just takes his time and comes back when he’s ready.”

Between the lines, that quote is just boilerplate word salad. The fact that the word “timetable” was used does not portend great things in the immediate future. The fact that the injury came without direct contact doesn’t, either.

Do these continued soft tissue injuries to the same and neighboring muscle groups indicate that the athlete is returning to action from injury sooner than they should? Heel contusions… achilles tendon aches and pains… these are all things that Dončić has dealt with in recent years. One thing is for sure — Dončić has always been great about working his way back into form after injury — but having to go through that process time after time after time after time — one starts to wonder. Is all that strain of working himself back into shape while also trying to win NBA games at the same too much for a mere mortal’s soft tissue?

We don’t know what we don’t know, and we dread finding out more. Hold me.

The Dallas Morning News confirmed ESPN’s initial reports after the game on Wednesday as well.

We’re going to need a Metroplex-wide summoning circle to chant good vibes in Luka’s direction in the next few days.