The Roster Has Come A Long Way
Things add up in life. We can fall behind or find ways to get ahead. In life, there are many examples of steady progress, and then a tipping point. That’s usually when great success happens. This article is going to be about trying to understand how the Dallas Mavericks roster has changed since Luka Doncic was drafted.
Let’s flip the script on the Mavs recent drafts and trades and think about these transactions in financial terms. In investing, compound interest has mythical status. This is mainly because it’s gains cannot be fully understood until you are a long way into the process. And the results can be astonishing.
Albert Einstein said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.”
How We Got Here
The Mavericks for a long time did not understand it. The tried and trusted way to have a winning franchise is to draft a great player and then build around that star. Dallas has, until recently, failed miserably at that.
To be fair, it’s not easy to build around a player who has been so good, so quickly. Doncic has been First Team All-NBA for 5 of his first 6 seasons. From his second season the team has been relevant as a playoff contender just because he dramatically raised the floor. As a result, high draft picks on players with real pedigree was unlikely to manifest itself.
I’m going to briefly look back now at what steps the team took around, and after, the 2018 draft.
Year: 2017
First and foremost, the Mavs drafted Doncic because they were able to do so. They were bad.
The previous year, the 2017 draft, they also had a high pick. That went on Dennis Smith, who was taken with the 9th selection. Very good players were taken after him, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, OG Anunoby, and Jarrett Allen (out of Texas), just to name a few players.
Acquiring one of those all-star calibre players would have given the roster more talent, while still allowing the Mavs to lose a lot of games the next year to have a chance at Doncic. Not ideal.
Final Evaluation: A poor selection in a loaded 2017 class.
Year: 2018
The next year was, pound for pound, perhaps the greatest draft triumph in recent memory. The new face of the franchise Luka Doncic at 3, and college player of the year Jalen Brunson at 33. Both players were vastly underrated and would become the core of the team that got to the Western Conference Finals in 2022.
Final Evaluation: Over The Moon Triumph.
Downward Spiral
I mentioned the power of compound interest at the top. Careful, smart decisions tend to add up over time and the key component that really leads to these great results is consistency. Staying the course is the key. However, the front office wanted to make a giant leap forward instead.
Year: 2019
The Mavs, with Donnie Nelson at the helm, couldn’t seem to keep a clear head. They spent heavily to trade for Kristaps Porzingis. Thus, jettisoning any chance of using the draft to put players around Doncic, who were on the same career timeline. Feeling a need to quickly add a second star, they added KP. No doubt a gifted player, he was coming off a career threating surgery and, inexplicably, was given a max contract with no injury-based protections. This was a clumsy lunge for someone who was hurt constantly and seemed to be under the impression that he would be the franchise player. Coming into the 2020 post season he was playing at a very high level, and everything seemed possible. Then devastating injury struck again. A huge swing that never paid off.
Final Evaluation: The Mavs had a dynamic duo who never seemed truly comfortable together. Again, they were dismissive about building through the draft in favor of targeting stars.
Year: 2020
With all these future picks out the door, the 2020 draft would be crucial.
Good young players on cheap contracts is the glue that keeps championship teams viable. The Kansas City Chiefs have done this in the NFL and extended their Super Bowl window.
Poor Returns
It was a tricky draft to get right. Much of the season had been lost the world was shut down. Scouts did not get to know players in a way that previously access would allow. However, many teams adapted. The Grizzlies took Desmond Bane at the 30th pick. There were 4 years of tape of his skills, and he had showed improvement in his game every year. He was going to college in Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, right under the nose of the Mavs. A very good shooter like that would have been a great addition on a team that shoots a lot of 3-point shots. The Mavs used a first-round selection on Josh Green at 18, Tyrell Terry at 31, Tyler Bey at 36. Terry and Bay were nonfactors. Green, who plays hard, and has the ability to be a good player in the league, unfortunately had an up and down run as a Mavs player. I liked his dynamism. He worked hard on his shooting. He was just never a player who showed any great understanding of the game, was unsure of his place on the court. Ultimately, he was traded. Those 3 valuable picks produced a disappointing return.
Final Evaluation: Too much focus on analytics when drafting. Another unsuccessful endeavor.
Year: 2020/2021
The Mavs were all in with leaving them with no picks the following year. Seth Curry had provided laser shooting, working well as a low maintenance guard next to Doncic. He was traded for the more defensive minded Josh Richardson.
Final Evaluation: The Mavs took the Clippers to Game 7 but Doncic was still elevating a deeply flawed roster. The front office was still not helping.
Year: 2021/2022
Drafts picks were again not available this year. However, the Mavs did bring in free agent Reggie Bullock, who would play an important role. Porzingis, with a large contract, had diminished in value was traded mid-season, effectively, in a salary dump. Spencer Dinwiddie joined the team as part of the deal.
Final Evaluation: Bullock and Dinwiddie played important roles in the deep playoff run. There was a sense of sadness seeing KP leave and thinking what could have been. The lack of depth was this time papered over by the magical run in the second half of the season. Jalen Brunson, finally, under Jason Kidd, got a real opportunity to flourish.
The post Western Conference Finals run off season was a paradox. There was a sense of optimism following a great run. The Game 7 victory over the Suns was like a halo effect over the entire franchise. However, the squad was on much more shaky ground than that series win indicated. And the series of transactions that would play out going into the following year would prove to be truly a horror show.
A Low Point
Year: 2022/2023
Fumbling the Jalen Brunson situation was clearly a huge error at the time. A few years later it has not aged well. Brunson has developed into a player who now gets MVP votes. His role as a team leader was even more evident in his absence. The overuse of Finney – Smith and Bullock caught up with the team the next season.
The good news is that the Mavs had a first-round draft pick to play with. The bad news is that they used it carelessly in the Christian Wood trade, who was then on an expiring contract. When asked about replacing the lack of ball handling, Nico replied, “People forget about Frank.” Meaning Frank Ntilikina. JaVale McGee had somehow been promised a starting job. This immediately proved to be a horrible idea. Nico still was using training wheels – and had a lot to learn.
A Reason For Optimism
To his credit, the new General Manager is always active. He did not hesitate to take a plunge in the mid-season trade market. He traded for Kyrie Irving when his value was at an all time low. He deserves praise for the value the deal represented but also for making it happen in the first place. His previous career as a Nike executive and his reputation for being popular with players around the league was crucial to winning Irving over. And crucially ensuring he was a happy camper who would re-sign when his contract was up.
Final Evaluation: A horror show until the mid-season trade, getting Kyrie for pennies on the dollar. Luckily, the team tripped and stumbled into a top 10 draft pick.
Upward Spiral
Year: 2023/2024
It’s easy to forget now but the sense of urgency going into the next year was massive. The Luka departure clock was ticking.
Nico clearly understood the honeymoon period he had was over. He took aggressive action. He identified Derek Lively before the draft as a high character player. O-Max Prosper was also recognized as someone with very good upside. GM Harrison, through clever manoeuvring, managed to get both players. He traded down and still got a young center who has the potential to be a multiple time all-star. That move alone showed ingenuity that had been lacking for years.
What took the team over the top was coming. Adding Washington and Gafford was a sharp tipping point. It accentuated the strengths of an already interesting team.
Who could forget the first game after the trade deadline against the Oklahoma City Thunder? The energy was incredible. Dunks, defence and all-round great vibrations. The crowd were responding like they just knew something was different. Despite that, in the national media, it seemed only Tim Legler was buying what the Mavs were selling. A lot of money could have been made right after those trades happened as very few people could envision what was to come.
Derek Jones Jr. was an underrated player who became a regular starter. Dante Exum was a good addition to the second unit. Both players were on minimum contracts. A vital recovery after a series of prior errors.
Final Evaluation: The Mavs finally saw a front office that was beating other teams to the punch, not napping on the sofa. The mid-season trades proved to be a revelation.
A Tipping Point
Year: 2024/2025
That brings the Mavs to the current day. Shipping out Tim Hardaway Jr. was long overdue and should lower the collective blood pressure of Mavs fans. Getting Quintin Grimes for a handful of second picks should prove to be a great negotiation. Losing the athleticism of Derrick Jones Jr. was unfortunate. However, pouncing on Naji Marshall ensured that the Mavs avoided being stuck in the mud, if they had waited too long for Airplane Mode. And on top of that, Jones with a new contract secured, is unlikely to be quite as hungry next season. So, I would argue that’s an upgrade. Getting Klay Thompson was very much a relationship type of move. Nico and Michael Finlay sold the vision of a new exciting chapter in Mavs history and it paid. Harrison in his introductory press conference as General Manager declared that he would ensure, “Dallas is going to get a seat at the table.” This new, more experienced, Nico is fulfilling that promise with extraordinary confidence.
Final Evaluation: The squad is now probably the best in the west. The Mavericks have finally become a team that makes smart deals and wins negotiations.
Lively Saves The Day
What is striking about this timeline is how quickly the Dallas Mavericks have turned around their roster. For years they settled into plodding and preaching. Their inadequacy was cushioned by the longevity of Dirk Nowitzki and by finding a new superstar in Luka Doncic. However, the second half of the 2022/2023 season was undoubtably a wake-up call.
There is an adage that luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Nico had done his homework on Derek Lively. The more I think of the direction of the team’s future the more getting Lively appears monumental. If Jalen Brunson had stayed the Mavericks they would not have been bad enough to secure the mature, dominant young center that had a magnificent rookie season. His first preseason game indicates that will be no sophomore slump.
The ultimate prize, of course, is winning the title. The team made a giant leap but the Celtics had years of outstanding drafts and trades under their belt. Following Einstein’s logic, another year of compounding means that the Mavs have taken another step towards their goal. The Mavs organization is now being looked upon around the league now in a positive light. An organization of flexibility and creativity. Rarely have we seen a turnaround this quick off the court. Now the Mavericks must continue to win on it. This season could be a definitive tipping point.