NBA GMs cite Dallas as a team whose success is ‘toughest to predict’
The annual NBA General Managers’ Poll was released on Tuesday, and these visionary basketball minds have no idea what to make of your Dallas Mavericks.
They’re behind Oklahoma City and Boston in most team considerations, and perennial MVP candidate Luka Dončić is polling behind Shai Gildeous-Alexander, sometimes Victor Wembanyama, and at other times Nikola Jokic in many of the individual considerations voted on by league GMs.
Notably, the NBA GMs named the Mavericks one of the top-six teams whose “level of success this season is toughest to predict,” so let’s view the rest of their findings through that lens. Results may vary widely on your Dallas Mavericks experience, the general managers warn us all. This team could win the West, or this team could somehow wind up a 6-seed and an also-ran. Last season’s late-season run, backed up by a run to the NBA Finals, didn’t prove a whole heck of a lot, it appears.
The Boston Celtics are the overwhelming favorites to repeat as NBA Champions, earning 83% of the GM votes in that question. The Oklahoma City Thunder received 13% of the vote, and the Mavs got 3%, which we will take as a win in the always ongoing Dallas Mavericks brand awareness campaign.
The Mavericks came away from the poll ranked the fourth-best team in the Western Conference, with the bulk of the GM respondents picking the Mavs to finish somewhere in the 2-4 range in the conference standings at the end of the year. The West will be tough again this year, but fourth seems a bit low for our taste. Any poll that has the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves finishing ahead of these Dallas Mavericks is living in the world of 2022.
Current NBA GMs seem more split on the question of who will win this year’s Kia Most Valuable Player. Dončić got 30% of the vote, but Gilgeous-Alexander edged him out with 40%. Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum got 7% apiece in a tie for third on the GM poll.
It seems odd, then, that on the very next question, “if you were starting an NBA franchise with one current NBA player, who would it be,” after Wembanyama at an overwhelming 77%, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander were tied at second, getting 10% of the vote apiece. Dončić got just 3% on this one. It’s no secret that Dončić’s style of play isn’t every GM’s cup of tea, so some of that might be in play here.
When asked, “which player makes an opposing coach make the most adjustments,” the GMs had no choice but to give that one to Dončić. Luka earned 33% of the GM vote on that question to Stephen Curry’s 30%. Jokic got 23%.
Dončić was also named the league’s best point guard in the poll, beating out Gilgeous-Alexander 37-30%. So, he’s the better point guard and he creates worse matchup difficulties for opposing coaches, but Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading MVP candidate? Just asking questions. Oh, and by the way, the GMs also voted Dončić the fifth-best shooting guard and the second-best small forward in today’s game. So there’s that.
Jokic ran away with 87% of the GM vote for the best international player in the NBA. He got 87% of the vote to just 10% for Dončić and just 3% for Wembanyama. This feels like far too wide of a margin, and according to the answers to other questions, almost contradictory from the GMs.
It’s sort of remarkable as well that Dereck Lively II’s name does not appear once in any of the individual defensive predictions, for best defender or best interior defender specifically. We realize he’s just entering his second year, but we reckon by the end of the year, he’ll be marching up the leaderboard in consideration for all sorts of defensive superlatives.