After last year’s first round exit in the playoffs, Milwaukee finds itself in a precarious position
The 2023-24 Milwaukee Bucks season was one of the strangest years we’ve seen in a long time. First year coach Adrian Griffin, hired in large part due to the championing of Giannis Antetokounmpo, started the year 30-13 and was promptly fired. After ESPN broadcaster Doc Rivers took over, the team went 17-19 and exited the playoffs in Round 1 with a myriad of injuries and even more questions. The outcome of this year could be awfully telling about Giannis’ future in Milwaukee, which the whole league will be paying attention to.
Milwaukee Bucks (over/under 50.5 wins)
Additions: Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., Delon Wright
Drafted: AJ Johnson (NBL), Tyler Smith (G League Ignite)
Losses: Jae Crowder, Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Cam Payne
The Bucks were limited in the ways they could improve their team this offseason due to their cap situation. With nothing other than minimum contracts to offer, Milwaukee did awfully well to get Taurean Prince from the Lakers, Gary Trent Jr. from the Raptors & old friend Delon Wright from Miami. No one will make the case that this trio will put Milwaukee over the top in the title hunt, but it was good work to address some needs. Malik Beasley is probably the loss that will sting the most out of the four main pieces. He’s still a very good shooter and that aspect will be missed in their lineup. In totality, the Bucks probably didn’t gain or lose much with their transactions this summer.
Milwaukee drafted two players in the 2024 NBA Draft, and neither one of them played college basketball. First round pick AJ Johnson played for the Illawarra Hawks, which play in the NBL (same league that LaMelo Ball played in before the 2020 Draft). It didn’t quite work out as well for Johnson as it did for Ball, as AJ averaged just 3 points per game last year. It was seen as a surprising pick at the time, but clearly the Bucks believe in the talent of the former 5-star recruit. Another former 5-star recruit, forward Tyler Smith came from the G League Ignite in the 2nd round. At 6’11”, Smith has the size and skill to develop into something. I’d imagine he spends this year in the G League again, but time will tell.
Outlook
Doc Rivers will finally get the training camp he desperately wanted to have, after taking over the Bucks midseason last year. He spoke often last year about how taking over midseason is the toughest job in sports. Granted, that was met with a lot of criticism and rightly so, but there is at least some truth there. Doc went just 17-19 in his 36 regular season games as the head man, with difficulties implementing his system and working with a staff that wasn’t his. There are no excuses this time, as he has his staff of choice and a full offseason and training camp to mold this team. Doc has had his history of playoff meltdowns, but last year notwithstanding, he’s generally regarded as a good regular season coach.
The injury concerns about this team are not going away. Last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo played 73 games in the regular season, but didn’t play in the playoffs due to his hamstring injury. Damian Lillard played 73 games, but he’s now 34 years old and in the 2 previous seasons, he combined to miss 77 games with injuries. He also missed games 5 & 6 in the series against the Pacers due to injury. Likewise, Khris Middleton has missed 76 games in the last 2 seasons combined, and then this offseason he had surgery on both ankles. Giannis is more reliable than either of those two, so I expect him to be relatively healthy. However, getting the same level of health out of Dame & Middleton is a much tougher ask.
Lastly, does this team have the requisite depth needed in order to play well into May and potentially June? Beyond the core group of Giannis, Lillard, Middleton, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, do they have enough to get them through. There will be a lot of pressure on the new additions and Pat Connaughton to provide them with quality minutes.
Prediction: Under 50.5 wins
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a floor raiser; his teams will play to a baseline level that is awfully high. However, the depth of this team is likely to be tested. I worry about Lillard and Middleton’s abilities to stay healthy, especially on the news of Middleton’s ankle procedures this summer. A full offseason and training camp will certainly help Doc Rivers & his staff, but none of that will matter if the key guys can’t play together due to injury or injury prevention. It won’t be comfortable but give me the under in a deeper Eastern Conference than we’re used to.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change.