MMBets: Orlando is a stealth contender in the East

The Magic should be a regular season wins machine

2023-24 In review

The third year of Jamahl Mosley’s tenure in Orlando was his best yet, delivering a 47-35 record and the #5 seed in the East. The 47 regular season wins was the most Orlando has had since 2010-11, when they won 52 games under Stan Van Gundy. Between their play on the floor & some masterful social media work, Orlando heads into this year with plenty of momentum and room to grow.

Orlando Magic (over/under 47.5 wins)

Additions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cory Joesph

Drafted: Tristan Da Silva (Colorado)

Losses: Joe Ingles, Markelle Fultz

Adding an elite role player like KCP will help enhance both ends of the floor. He shot the 3-ball at 40.6% last year in Denver and is a career 37% guy from deep. Caldwell-Pope will also help the defensive side of the floor as well, as he is still a plus defender in his 12th season. Orlando desperately needed the shooting and veteran presence that Caldwell-Pope will bring to this team.

Tristan Da Silva is an interesting prospect. He was a four-year guy for Colorado who stayed the course and steadily improved. He was viewed as the 2nd best prospect on his team, behind Cody Williams (drafted by Utah) and ahead of KJ Simpson (drafted by Charlotte). Da Silva produced at an elite level, averaging 16 ppg his senior year on nearly 40% shooting from 3. He has the tools to be a solid NBA player, but I wonder if he’ll be viewed as a year away.

Outlook

The ceiling of this Magic team relies on how much offense they can get. Last year, Orlando had the 22nd best offense in the NBA, scoring only 113.4 points per 100 possessions. They played at the 6th slowest pace in the NBA, averaging just under 97 possessions per game (for reference, Dallas averaged right at 100, ranking 6th in pace). They also turned the ball over nearly 15 times per game, 6th worst in the league.

The offensive leap from guys on their roster should come from their star level players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Paolo was a 22/7/5 guy last year in his 2nd year, but he wasn’t efficient (49.7 eFG%). The 3-point shot doesn’t look smooth yet, but I like that he’s getting attempts up at over 4 per game. Franz had a strange year from 3, as he shot it at 28% after being 36% in year 2. He wasn’t even that good shooting it in the Olympics, either, as he was 7/35 (20%) from deep. These are concerning trends for Franz, but he still managed to average nearly 20 points per game last year. The loss from not having his spacing impacts the team negatively, and that will need to change for Orlando to optimize its offense.

For all of their offensive issues, the defense was elite. Orlando had the 2nd best defensive rating in the league (111.3). The roster is filled with guys who can guard, including Jalen Suggs & Jonathan Isaac. Paolo Banchero is a good defender too, especially considering the workload he had to carry offensively.

Prediction: over 47.5 wins

In my view, Orlando is a markedly better team than they were last year when they won 47 games. The core of the team is now entering year 3 together and they’ll get a big boost with the addition of KCP. Getting some extra juice offensively will be the key to Orlando’s success, especially in the post season. They were too stagnant for too long in the playoffs. The 2nd half of Game 7 against Cleveland was a brutal watch, but I think they can grow from that. I expect this team to get near 50 wins in a weaker Eastern Conference.

Bonus Prediction: Paolo Banchero to average more than 24.2 ppg (-115)

Per NBA University, Paolo Banchero had the 3rd worst shooting percentage on drives in the league last year. However, with the addition of KCP, the court spacing will be much cleaner for him to get to the rim and be more efficient. Any bump in efficiency should have him clear the 24.2 points per game. Of note, Paolo jumped from 20.0 points per game to 22.6 points per game from his rookie year to year 2. It’s reasonable to expect a similar jump from year 2 to year 3.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change.