Be prepared for some good, old-fashioned tanking by this group
With the NBA’s new Draft Lottery structure that was rolled out in 2019, the incentive to “tank” has been discouraged. With the old rules, the team with the worst record had a 25% chance to pick first and couldn’t drop any further than 4th. Under the current rules, each of the “top” 3 in lottery odds now each hold a 14% chance to nab the first overall pick. It’s worked like the NBA had hoped, as last year the Hawks got the first overall pick, even though they were a play in team.
This year, however, the top of the draft is so loaded that tanking is going to make its triumphant return to the NBA at large. The class is shaping up to rival that of 2018, which as we all know, produced some exceptional players. Because of that, we have a lengthy list of “contenders” for the top pick.
Not tanking, for now
San Antonio Spurs (over/under 36.5 wins)
The Spurs added veteran guard Chris Paul to give Wemby a true guard presence on the floor. I’m not sure that they go for it the entire year, as another high lottery pick could be a nice addition before going for it starting next year. They’ll likely see where they’re at sometime around the end of January to see if they’re going to buy or try and find a top pick.
Prediction: I’ll write on this more in their preview, but I very slightly lean over
Purgatory
Atlanta Hawks (over/under 36.5 wins)
The Hawks might be the most interesting team on this list. They, quite frankly, just aren’t very good and I don’t see any way to fix that other than bottoming out. But they’re probably feeling pressure to go for it before Trae Young gets a wandering eye. Atlanta has reached purgatory and it’s time to either get worse or get better. My prediction is that they’ll push that decision off until the offseason.
Prediction: over, I think? But really, just pencil them into the 9/10 seed play in game.
Chicago Bulls (over/under 28.5 wins)
After sending Alex Caruso to the Thunder and Demar Derozan to Sacramento, the Bulls will at least have the picks they got back in return to try and get better, right? Wait, they didn’t actually get any picks back? And they have Josh Giddey? Everything about this organization needs a reset, and yet, here we are.
Prediction: over 28.5 wins, but not as many as the 41 that Jerry Reinsdorf’s other Chicago team had
Focused on “development”
Toronto Raptors (over/under 29.5 wins)
Can Scottie Barnes be a number one or two guy? What do they have in Quickley and RJ Barrett? Can rookies Ja’Kobe Walter (Baylor) & Jamal Shead (Houston) produce early? These are all things they need to figure out. Winning games is not one of those things.
Prediction: under 29.5 wins
Utah Jazz (over/under 29.5 wins)
Anyone else ready for Utah to be ultra-competitive for 2 months before finishing the season on a ‘8 wins in their last 34 games’ stretch? Me neither. But they are a fun preseason team, as we just saw.
Prediction: under 29.5 wins
Charlotte Hornets (over/under 30.5 wins)
Here’s to hoping that Josh Green makes the most of his newfound opportunities in the Queen City. This team should be somewhat interesting, if they can remain healthy. Is LaMelo Ball going to play more games than what their projected win total is? It didn’t happen last year. Let’s hope that it does this year.
Prediction: under 30.5, but very fun league pass team. Eric Collins forever.
Detroit Pistons (over/under 25.5 wins)
Normally, the Pistons retain residence in the Tank. However, as noted in the preview I wrote for Detroit, I think the Pistons have the chance to really improve! People will soon remember just how good Cade Cunningham is.
Prediction: over 25.5 wins
The tank commanders
Portland Trail Blazers (over/under 22.5 wins)
Portland currently is the rebuild that keeps on rebuilding. The process that keeps reprocessing. Chauncey Billups is likely out the door after this year. Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant & anyone else who has value will probably be out the door during the year. It’s a shame that this once good franchise is now just a dumpster.
Prediction: under 22.5 wins & over 0.5 coach firings
Washington Wizards (over/under 20.5 wins)
Once again, many thanks to the Wizards for providing the Mavericks with a championship quality piece. Also, a special token of appreciation to Kyle Kuzma for being a losing player for a franchise that will do plenty of that in the near future.
Prediction: under 20.5 wins
Brooklyn Nets (over/under 19.5 wins)
Do you know how hard it is to be so bad that your win total is under 20 wins? At least this team has a clear direction, and that direction is pointed directly at Durham, North Carolina. Cam Johnson is likely to be traded, along with Dorian Finney-Smith & anyone else they can get some picks for. My only request for the Nets is for them to send Dorian Finney-Smith somewhere where he’d be loved, appreciated & utilized.
Prediction: under 19.5 wins and over 2.5 trades completed
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change