The 2024-25 season is here and it is time to make money.
A new season is upon us and with it comes new recurring pieces here at Mavs Moneyball. One of them will be our betting “Game of the Week”, where Tyler Edsel and I, David Trink, will pick the Dallas Mavericks’ best game each week (national TV game, rivalry game, etc.) and draft four plays each (one game line, two player props, and one wild card) to go head-to-head all year and see who can make the most artificial money. Each of our plays will earn fake cash based on the payout from a $100 bet, so you do benefit from taking plays with higher odds. We will both provide a little background on why we chose each play.
Tonight’s game is the Mavericks’ home and season opener against the San Antonio Spurs, where the home fans will get their first real look at Klay Thomspon. The Spurs have revamped their roster and now feature a lineup with Chris Paul at point guard and former Maverick Harrison Barnes at forward. This should be an exciting first game with a steady pace and it will take willpower for the Mavericks not to underestimate San Antonio.
Odds up to date as of 10:00 AM CST from the DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler’s Plays
- Luka Doncic to score 9+ points in the first quarter (-120)
- Dereck Lively to record a double-double (+550)
- Under 229 points (-108)
- Mavericks -2.5 1Q spread (-112)
My first pick is my favorite on the board. Doncic is a notoriously fast starter who looks for his shot early. To that point, he averaged 9.8 points per 1st quarter last year. I’m going back to the well for him to establish himself early and often. Dereck Lively to record a double-double is worth a sprinkle as well. In his debut, Lively put 16 & 10 on Wembanyama’s head in 31 minutes. Lively will have the minute load, starting or not, to get to that benchmark. At +550, I think it’s worth the risk at the price we’re getting. I also will reluctantly take the under 229. The Mavs were an under wagon last year, going under 56% of the time in the regular season. It won’t be a fun thing to root for, but the number is too high given how games have been officiated since late last year. My final play is the Mavericks to cover their -2.5 first quarter spread. I think they’ll come out firing to try and get the crowd going. They weren’t a great 1st quarter team last year, but this should be a good spot.
David’s Plays
- Kyrie Irving to score 25+ points (+125)
- Victor Wembanyama to grab 12+ rebounds (+110)
- Spurs +8 (-108)
- Any player to score 35+ points (+115)
Similarly to Tyler, my first play is also my favorite. Kyrie Irving has to be more aggressive this season for the Mavericks to be successful and it starts tonight. The Spurs have no one who can match up with him and he should see 21-24 shots, as he did in every game against San Antonio last season. My next play comes as a byproduct of disagreeing with Tyler. I think this game will be fast-paced and Wembanyama should see a lot of rebound opportunities. He has put on muscle and is ready for a year-two jump, so I expect a dominant performance from him. In the same vein, I have to take the Spurs to cover tonight. This will be a closely contested matchup and although I don’t want to bet it, Klay Thompson could put up a stinker. Lastly, one of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, or Victor Wembanyama is going to get to 35 points. The star power and pace in this game favor this play, so hopefully the rust of game one does not prevent this from hitting.
Current Net Winnings:
- Tyler – $0
- David – $0