The Mavs find themselves in a tough situational spot here
We are back with our second installment of the Mavs Moneyball Game of the Week betting preview, this time for the Mavs trip to Minnesota to take on the Wolves. As a quick refresher for how this goes, David Trink and me, Tyler Edsel, will break down the Mavs’ best game of the week (nationally televised, best matchup, etc.). We’ll each give out four picks: a side, two player props and a wildcard pick and compete to see who can make the most fake money this year. Each pick will payout fake cash based off of a $100 bet.
Last week’s results
David: 0-4 (-$400)
- Kyrie Irving to score 25+ points (+125) He scored 15 points
- Victor Wembanyama to grab 12+ rebounds (+110) He recorded 9 rebounds
- Spurs +8 (-108) They lost 120-109
- Any player to score 35+ points (+115) Luka’s 28 points was the game high
Tyler: 1-2-1 (+$350)
- Game under 229 (-108) Game finished at exactly 229
- Luka Doncic 9+ 1st quarter points (-120) He had 4 points in 1Q
- Mavericks -2.5 1st quarter spread (-112) Dallas lost the 1Q 22-20
- Dereck Lively to record a double-double (+550) He finished with 15 points & 11 rebounds
Combined season to date results: 1-6-1 (-$50)
Game Intangibles
Dallas Mavericks (2-1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1)
Tipoff: 6:30p at Target Center
How to watch: National broadcast available on TNT, streaming on MavsTV, or over the air on KFAA Ch. 29 or your regional TEGNA affiliate
Tonight’s matchup is the first of 3 games between the Mavs and the Wolves, all three of which are slated to be on National TV. Since last year’s West Finals, the Wolves have made significant changes around their star players. The Wolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns for DFW Native (and founding member of the ‘versus Mavs all-stars’ hall of fame) Julius Randle & former Nova Knick, Donte Divencenzo. While it is still early, the Wolves are launching 10 more threes per game this year. Last year, Minnesota shot 32.7 3’s per game, while through 3 games this year, they’re at 42.7 attempts.
Odds
Spread: Minnesota -5 (-110)
Over/Under: 222 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: Dallas (+160)
David’s picks
- Luka Doncic over 29.5 points (-110)
- Dallas +5 (-110)
- Julius Randle 25+ points (+165)
- Mavs to win by 1-5 (+475)
With my first pick, I’m taking Luka Doncic over 29.5 points. This is a no-brainer, as he had the worst shooting game of his career last night and gets Anthony Edwards tonight. I’m tempted to take 35+ points (+230), but I won’t get greedy. Luka will bounce back in a big way. I’ll also take Dallas +5 (-110). I don’t care that it’s the second game of a back-to-back, with travel. The Maverick offense is due to click, and tonight is the night it happens, given the history between these teams. With my 3rd pick, I’m taking Julius Randle to score 25+ points (+165). He’s killed the Mavericks the past few years and Dallas has struggled with physicality early this season. I think Randle will have a big game and dominate the Mavs inside. Lastly, I’m riding the Mavericks to win the game by 1-5 points (+475). I love the spot here and I think they make a statement with a hard fought, road win on national TV. Let’s just hope the jet lag doesn’t bog down the shooting any more than the lack of focus already has.
Tyler’s picks
- Luka Doncic over 3.5 3’s made (+120)
- Full game under 222 (-108)
- Daniel Gafford under 14.5 points + rebounds + assists (+100)
- Luka Doncic 50+ points + rebounds + assists combo (+145)
In the same vein as David, I’m looking for ways to bet on a Luka bounce back. Getting his over 3.5 3’s at a really good plus number is the move for me. Before last night in Utah, Luka had shot 38% from 3 on 12 attempts per game. I expect a progression to the mean tonight. I also like the under 222 (-108) here. Minnesota might not be the same defensive team they were last year with Randle taking big minutes, they’re still awfully good. Dallas is no slouch there either, as they’ve yet to have a game go over the total this year. Next, it’s time to fade Daniel Gafford by going under his points + rebounds + assists combo total of 14.5 (+100). No disrespect to him whatsoever, he’s a good player who will need to play a big role for this team. But it’s abundantly clear that Dereck Lively needs to get the bulk of the minutes at center. I think we see that shift happening sooner than later, so why not tonight? Lastly, give me another Luka prop, with the 50+ points + rebounds + assists combo (+145). Luka should give us over 30 points, making the rest of this load a bit lighter. I expect a big game from our guy tonight.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change