The betting markets are much less optimistic about this team now than they were the morning of February 1st
The NBA has finally arrived at the All-Star Break, which couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dallas Mavericks (30-26, 8th in the Western Conference). With a few days off, now is a natural point to check into some of the betting odds that have drastically changed since the trade went down on Feb. 1. Let’s break down any angles that we’re looking for as we head into the final stretch of the regular season.
Futures odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook as of Feb. 17 at 9 a.m. Odds are subject to change.
To win the NBA Championship
Before Luka trade: +1800 (6th best in NBA)
Now: +3500 (T-10th best in NBA)
Tyler: The Mavericks essentially flipped in title odds with the Los Angeles Lakers, who now sit at the sixth best odds to win the title (+1800). When fully healthy, I think this is a good number for the Mavs, and you can even find up to 85/1 out there in the market. The odds are, ironically enough, right around what they were at this time last year before they went on that magical run. However, with no starter quality center in sight, health feels like a pipe dream. That doesn’t even account for having to manage the workload of Kyrie Irving, who is playing over 40 minutes played per contest since the Luka trade. Beyond that, the Mavericks are down two coaches from their original staff that started the year. I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong, but it feels like there’s no way they win a title this year.
David: Similarly to Tyler, I do not see a way the Mavericks get healthy enough to make this number a worthwhile gamble. In fact, it would be a miracle if they didn’t get any more injured, much less be competitive enough to allow their key players to return healthy for a playoff run. A sprinkle of half a unit or so on this future is not a bad idea just in case the stars align. However, committing more than that to Dallas winning the championship would be unwise.
To make the NBA Playoffs
Before Luka trade: -600 (85.71% implied odds)
Now: +105 (48.78% implied odds)
David: On Feb. 2, I would have said to bet the house on the Mavericks to miss the playoffs. They were in shambles after losing by what seemed like a million points to Cleveland and their team’s build was questionable. Now, as they sit four games above the .500 mark, I think betting on them to make the playoffs at plus-money is a great bet. They play hard, get involvement from every guy, and seem to not care who is out on the floor. Their schedule is past its peak, and there are many gettable games down the stretch. Dallas will probably make the playoffs, but after that, I have no promises.
Tyler: These odds are a reflection of the market’s opinion that these Mavericks have far less of a chance to do what last year’s Mavericks did after the All-Star Break: Win games at the rate of a 60-win team. After the inexplicable loss in Utah earlier this season until Christmas Day, Dallas went 14-3 (67-win pace). With all due respect to the current roster, that spurt doesn’t exist for them. With everything that’s gone down in the last few weeks, it’d be a historical failure if this team fails to reach the postseason.
Angles we’re looking for in the final 26 games
Tyler: There’s going to be a lot of attention on Kyrie Irving for the remainder of this regular season. This team is very limited with on-ball creation, and Irving will be tasked with the majority of those responsibilities. With that comes the extra attention that was normally placed on Luka’s shoulders. I’ll be looking to bet unders on Kyrie props when Dallas plays a defense that will look to get the ball out of Irving’s hands.
David: Max Christie is going to be a cash cow for Dallas bettors in this final third. He has scored 15-plus in all six games for the Mavericks, grabbed five or more rebounds in four of them, and dished out at least two assists in every game as well. He will be underpriced often. Whether that is at 14.5 points, 2.5 assists, or 4.5 rebounds, Christie’s lines will yield value. He is going to have to be a big part of Dallas’ offense by necessity and will be tasked with shooting 10 to 15 times a game, as well as making decisions with the ball in his hands. The perfect opportunities to grab these props are in spots after he has a bad game or two, where his lines will be a bit lower and the bounce back will be resounding.
Tyler: Bet on the Mavs at home or as an underdog. Otherwise, probably bet on the opponent. Before the break, Dallas won three times as underdogs of at least 3 points, including as 7.5-point dogs at home to the Golden State Warriors and as 12-point dogs against the Boston Celtics on the road. The Mavs are 16-12-1 (57% ATS) as underdogs. Dallas is also a great home team, going 17-11 ATS (60.7%). As a whole, I think this team will continue to be feisty.
David: The Mavericks are going to be an over machine for the rest of the year. Since Feb. 2, they are 5-2 on the over with 12 being the average number of points they go over by. There are going to be a lot of low game totals for Dallas going forward due to their small frontcourt and limited ball-handling. However, as we have seen in the last seven games, there is plenty of offense to go around. In fact, Dallas is seventh in the NBA in offensive rating since Feb. 3. Defensively, the Mavericks can get stops when they have to but they will give up a lot of easy shots throughout games. Any game total under 225 for the rest of the year should be a blind bet on the over.
Check out David & Tyler every week in our MMBets Game of the Week betting column