We’ve seen generational players do it before
When a team acquires a generational talent, expectations become very high, very fast. We know all about that in Dallas with Luka, and the Mavericks clearly didn’t handle that all that well. The big swing with Porzingis was obviously the highlight move, but the Mavericks failed in building around Luka early and often. With Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are now entering that same territory. Do they make a big swing? Ride it out and try to build traditionally? Each approach has its risks, but with a guy who is as talented as Victor is, the window to win starts opening now.
San Antonio Spurs (over/under 36.5 wins)
Additions: Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes
Drafted: Stephon Castle (UConn), Harrison Ingram (North Carolina)
Losses: Devonte Graham
The Spurs offseason was highlighted by the additions of Chris Paul and old friend Harrison Barnes, two quality veterans who will be impactful for Victor and the young guys both on the floor and off of it. The moves are great because it shows Victor that the Spurs are willing to make moves to help him now, but if things hit the skids this year, both players would be good assets to flip at the trade deadline, if needed.
The Spurs used the 4th overall pick on Steph Castle, a guard out of UConn. Castle was one of my favorite college players last year. He defends at a high level, ran Dan Hurley’s pro-style offense and was a leader on that team. He should be able to push for rotation minutes early this season. If Chris Paul is moved this year, it’ll be because Castle is ready to go already. Ingram was an interesting player at UNC, although I’d expect him to spend the majority of his time in Austin with the G League Spurs.
Outlook
Generational players have a way of elevating their team to levels that are greater than the sum of all parts. Everyone thinks Victor Wembanyama is that guy, and for good reason. He’s (-170) to win the Defensive Player of the Year award as a second-year player. That is patently absurd! However, the leap that Wembanyama makes offensively in year 2 is going to be the biggest thing to look for with the Spurs. He’s got a lot of room to improve as a shooter and handling the ball. He handled it at times in the Olympics, but never really looked comfortable, nor good, while doing it. Victor has struggled with shooting the 3, as evidenced by his 32.5% mark from deep in the regular season last year. It didn’t improve this summer, either, as he shot it at just 28% in those Olympic Games. We’ll see if he can elevate there.
The early part of the season is also going to determine a lot about how hard the Spurs attack the trade deadline and latter half of the year. The Spurs open the year against the Mavericks in Dallas, but after that it the schedule can be managed. San Antonio has 3 early games with Houston, they play the Jazz twice in November and they’ll see the Blazers and Wizards all before the end of November. If they handle business where they should, they could be around .500 when the calendar turns over. However, if it takes a minute to come together, the West is deep enough to where they could be swallowed up.
Prediction: over 36.5 wins
Victor Wembanyama is a floor raiser in the same vein that Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic & Giannis Antetokounmpo are. If you notice, that’s the top 4 in MVP odds heading into the season. Victor is going to keep that company, and it’ll probably happen sooner than most people would like. In Luka’s second season, the Mavericks made the playoffs. I don’t expect the Spurs to get quite that far, but would it be shocking if they did? Not to me. I’ll lean to the over on the 36.5 wins, although chances are Spurs bettors will be sweating this one out deep into March and April.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change