MMBets: Best bets for the 2024-25 NBA season

It’s time to build out our portfolio

We’ve reached the dawn of a new NBA season at last. The fake games are complete, and we can finally shift our focus to the 82-games and beyond that will matter most. Through our MMBets series, Mavs Moneyball has covered the majority of the teams in the Association from a betting perspective. With the season now here, it’s time to put it all together with our portfolio build. For this build, we’re going with things I would put real American dollars on the line for, no leans. Reminder, please wager responsibly. Let’s dive in!

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change

Homer picks

Mavericks over 49.5 wins (-120)

Luka Doncic 10+ assists (+160)

Luka Doncic MVP winner (+370)

I’ll be honest, the Mavs win total just confuses me. They won 50 games last year, made the Finals and have gotten better. Yet the total is only 49.5? The only path to an under I see is injuries, yet the depth on this team is better than any past Luka team. It’s an over for me, and I also like alternate overs, too.

Luka’s assist props are in that same vein. He averaged 9.8 assists last year, and Dallas got better shooters this summer in Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes & Naji Marshall. In our MVP roundtable, I picked Luka to win the award and average 10.6 assists per game. I’m sticking to my predictions with a good plus money number still on the board.

The best of the rest

Detroit Pistons over 25.5 wins (-120)

I’ve written many, many words on why I like this squad, both on the team preview & on our Cooper Flagg sweepstakes preview. This team has some real players who can shoot the basketball, and you won’t find a bigger Cade Cunningham believer than myself.

Milwaukee Bucks under 50.5 wins (-115)

For full transparency, I grabbed this at (+105) about a month ago, but I still like it here too. There’s too many injury and fit concerns for my liking. You can read my full preview of the Bucks here.

New York Knicks under 54.5 wins (-110)

I’ll disagree with David here on this one. Like David, I agree that the Knicks are going to be a good team. However, this win total was 52.5 before they traded for KAT. I don’t think he is worth 2 wins to a team, especially when he’s only played 65 games or more in a season once in the last 5 years. Beyond that, Thibs has a knack for running guys into the ground with their minutes load, and this team is awfully thin to begin with.

New Orleans Pelicans under 46.5 wins (-120)

In the time since I wrote the season preview, the Pelicans have indicated that they are going to roll with Herb Jones as the starting center to start the season. That means I have major concerns about the durability of both he and Zion Williamson. In a division that features Dallas’ big man tandem, Victor Wembanyama & Zach Edey, they could be bullied inside and on the glass without the size to match up.

Toronto Raptors under 29.5 wins (+100)

The Raptors are the rare bad team that is also very expensive. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett & Jakob Poeltl are set to make a combined 71.7% of the cap this season, and three of those guys are on extensions deep into the future. Plus, if media day was any indication, winning might not be the highest thing on the priority list this season.

Washington Wizards under 19.5 wins (+115)

New head coach Brian Keefe had the Wizards playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the league last season, and there’s no slowing down now. This means that there are going to be more possessions in their games, which is actually bad for the Wizards. When you invite more possessions into a game, there will be less variance on the result because you’re giving the better team more opportunities to be the better team. No matter the sport, being bad at a fast tempo is a recipe for losing games. That is the 2024-25 Wizards in a nutshell.

To top it all off, our friends over at Bullets Forever predicted the Wizards would finish 14-68.

Joe Mazzulla NBA Coach of the year (+1100)

This number has taken a hit from (+2000) earlier this summer, and for good reason. Boston is projected to be the best team in the league once again. Mazzulla deserves a lot of credit for their run last year. He had to scheme things up to help get around Jayson Tatum’s shooting struggles last postseason, and all they did was go 16-3 in route to a title. If Boston has a great regular season once again, I expect Mazzulla to get some recognition since he’s validated himself with a championship.

Season-long player props

Jimmy Butler to record 10+ assists in any game (+100)

Jimmy has accomplished this 28 times in his Miami career, which spans 5 years. With Kyle Lowry now out the door, there’s no true point guard that can be trusted to spread the ball around. Jimmy is capable of doing that, and getting even odds here is good enough for me.

Anthony Edwards 3+ 3’s made per game (+220)

Even with losing KAT, the Wolves are going to be shooting more 3’s this year. Anthony Edwards, who took 16 of them in his final preseason game, will need to get more shots up to help pick up the slack. In the regular season last year, Edwards shot just under 7 3’s per game last year at 36%. However, in the playoffs Edwards is a career 39.1% shooter on exactly 8 attempts per game. If he gets to that 8 attempts mark, he needs to shoot 37.5% to hit this number. I see that as more of a coin flip than the implied odds of 31% at the (+220). For a safer alternative, Edwards’ season over/under is set at 2.7, (-125) to the over.