Dubs come to town looking to make up ground in the standings
We’ve reached the penultimate day before the NBA takes off for its annual All-Star Break. But lucky us, because we’ve got two games to watch in the next 36 hours. Today, the Dallas Mavericks (28-26) will look to hold on to their position in the Western Conference playoff race against the Golden State Warriors (27-26), who are just 0.5 games back in the standings.
If I know one thing about NBA basketball, it’s that the games that happen right before the All-Star Break get weird. As an example, the Chicago Bulls scored 29 points in a half of basketball yesterday, en route to a 40-point beating at the hands of the Detroit Pistons. All 30 teams in the association play tonight, and I guarantee that there will be a few results that have you asking yourself ‘what?’ Is this game one of them? Let’s get into the ‘cap.
Game intangibles
Golden State Warriors (27-26) vs Dallas Mavericks (28-26)
Tipoff: It’s a dreaded 8:30p local time start from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
How to watch: It’s an 8:30p start time because the suits at ESPN have the national broadcast of this one. However, if you’re so inclined, KFAA Ch. 29 or Mavs TV will also have the local broadcast with Followill & company.
Game odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00a
Spread: Warriors -7 (-112/-108)
Over/Under: 233 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: Dallas (+220) to pull off the upset
Just some line analysis here. The Warriors opened up as 3.5-point favorites here. The market isn’t always right whenever lines move, but when they move by this much in this little amount of time, it’s a sign that somebody knows something. We’ll soon find out!
Game picks
Jimmy Butler over 20.5 points (-105)
Kyrie Irving over 2.5 turnovers (-140)
Warriors -9.5 (+130)
Butler will probably draw PJ Washington, if he plays. But the numbers on Butler are deceiving, considering he mailed it in with the Heat. PJ matches up well here, but I think Dallas will be scrambling to contain Golden State’s ball and player movement enough to where Jimmy will draw plenty of mismatches.
Kyrie Irving is a fantastic player and ball handler, do not get me wrong. But Golden State will be throwing the kitchen sink at him since he’s the only person you really trust to dribble the ball. Draymond lurks for any skip passes, and out of double teams Kyrie can get a bit sloppy at times. I expect a high turnover evening from the Mavs.
Lastly, this matchup is unique on several different levels. If you’re looking for Mavs optimism, it’s this: Golden State isn’t exactly one to dominate you with bigs. So, while Dallas is going to be very small, Golden State is fine playing ball on those terms. The issue with that, however, is that the Dubs are better at that than the Mavs. This line is running for a reason, so let’s just get way ahead of it. Golden State by double digits.