The MVP candidate has a different level of greatness to achieve with the Dallas Mavericks in 2024-25
Luka Doncic enters his seventh NBA season having played exactly 400 regular season games and 50 playoff games. He has a Rookie of the Year trophy, a scoring title, and five straight All-NBA First Team appearances despite being under 26 years old (Kevin Durant and Tim Duncan share this record), and five straight All-Star appearances. He’s gone to the Conference Finals twice and the NBA Finals once. He’s one of the top two players in Dallas Mavericks history and depending on your criteria, he might not be two.
It’s wild to consider that by NBA superstar historical standards, he’s still two years away from being in his prime. He’s just 25 years old and coming off a season where he made a strong case for Most Valuable Player. He averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists while shooting 49% from the floor, 38% from three, and 79% from the free throw line. How does he top last season’s statistical effort? Can the Mavericks find more regular-season success with Doncic in the lineup? Can Doncic stay healthy leading into the playoffs?
Luka Doncic could be Thanos-snapped today and would be a first ballot Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame entrant. He’s that good and we’re in the middle of watching a historical run. What to expect this season is hard to guess past some variation of “Luka Doncic plays at a MVP level”, but the ride should be fun regardless of what happens.
Biggest Question(s)
The strange truth is that once a player elevates himself to be among the best in the league, the questions and volume of them only increase. In his sixth season, Doncic moved up the MVP voting, finishing third. Heading into this seventh season, there’s so much to wonder about Doncic’s level and consistency of play but those largely become noise when considering how fantastic he is on offense.
However, there are three main questions that surround Doncic in what could be his best season to date. First: can Doncic sustain the high level three point shooting. In the 2023-24 season, Doncic increased both his volume of threes (from 8.2 to 10.6 per game) and the clip at which he connected (from 34.2 to 38.2). Luka hit 284 regular season threes last season. Had he shot the same percentage as he did in 2022-23, he’d have his thirty fewer threes. Doncic hitting the longball effectively makes him un-guardable and the result was the scoring title. If he can keep that up, his path to his first MVP is much clearer.
Second: can Luka Doncic play passable defense? This vexes people who will throw things at me if you question Doncic’s defense. He WAS better in the 2023-24 campaign. That said, he needs to continue to play better defense for sustainable stretches of games. The NBA season is long and of course Dallas will take nights and possessions off, but he can no longer afford to be any iteration of early Houston James Harden. But of course, his ability to play defense is related to the third question.
Last: can Luka Doncic remain healthy heading into the postseason? This question and the previous question are tied together, as much as critics of Doncic’s game aren’t interested in hearing it. Luka entered the 2022 postseason with an injury and the 2024 postseason with an injury. We may never know what exactly was wrong with Doncic, but something was bothering him and it’s important to remember that when analyzing his play on both sides of the ball. Dallas and Doncic have to find a way to stay healthy as a healthy Luka Doncic is the league’s best player.
Best Case Scenario
Luka Doncic comes into the 2024-25 season in fantastic shape and plays the best basketball since the start of his 2019-20 season when he shocked the NBA. His strong shooting continues as he connects on 37% or more of his three-point attempts. Doncic’s overall scoring is down as his team is now able to score plenty with his help and as a result, he averages double-digit assists. Dallas jumps out of the pack in a crowded Western Conference and the strong play from the Mavericks keeps Dallas in the top three of the Western Conference. Doncic finally emerges as an obvious Most Valuable Player choice and takes the award as the Mavericks storm the playoffs and win the NBA Championship.
Worst Case Scenario
An early season thigh contusion results in Doncic getting off on the wrong foot. Even a Dallas Mavericks team with a hobbled Doncic still has a relatively high floor, Kidd is forced to play Doncic more then he wants and he’s never able to heal correctly. Doncic’s shot regresses as does his attitude and the story of the seventh year of Luka becomes that of the man who won’t grow up as he continues to berate referees and not get back on defense.
This is dark timeline stuff. I don’t like writing about it.
Season Goal
Despite the success the Mavericks have seen under Doncic’s tenure, there are still plenty of questions to answer. It’s not a matter of whether or not Doncic and the Mavericks can be great, it’s a question of how great can they be. The goal for this season is the same as it is every season when talking about one of the best players in the league: win the NBA Championship.
This is a lofty goal. One thing I keep reminding myself is that for all Dirk Nowitzki’s successes, he never made it out of the first round after winning the 2011 NBA Finals. It’s hard to win in the NBA, and so many things work against a team even making the playoffs, let alone the Finals, or even winning them. Doncic and company should have lofty goals, but we’re in the middle of witnessing an all time player. So while everyone should have high expectations, try to enjoy the ride too. It’s always over sooner than we think.