The third-year guard has something to prove, but will he get the time to make his case?
The blossoming career of Jaden Hardy shows that good things happen when individual talent fits team needs, but will he get the chance to grow beyond his role with the Dallas Mavericks? Much of the 6’4” guard’s value to Dallas comes from his aptitude for both the things the Mavericks need from their rotation players on offense, catch-and-shoot 3s and dunks. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s capabilities as distributors last year- and the attention the duo drew from defenses- put Hardy in position to feast as he focused on his strengths, as 86% of his 3s and 70% of dunks were assisted in 2023-24. Befitting a player with 22-year old legs, Hardy can really get on up there, and in just 121 games has already compiled an impressive resume of crowd-pleasing throwdowns.
The threat he poses as a dunker has opened up playmaking opportunities for him too, as he showed intriguing flashes of pick-and-roll prowess in the playoffs. His other forte, outside shooting, has been a boon to the Mavericks: he is an elite shooter from the wings, where he has shot 41.8%, and from the corner with the hoop to his left, with 43.9% accuracy.
Hardy’s strengths are as obvious as his limitations. He doesn’t have much of a midrange game, and for all his highlight reel dunks, those flushes are his only efficient finishing move up close as he shoots 57.3% for his career at the rim and an abysmal 44.7% on layups. He is an 80% free throw shooter, but his lack of versatility at the rim means defenders don’t have to foul him on drives to stop him as he averaged a single attempt per game last season. Moreover, Hardy is still finding his way as a defender and doesn’t appear to have a high ceiling on that end.
Big Question
Where will his minutes come from? Serving as an understudy to two of the league’s best floor generals is a priceless opportunity for a young point guard but it doesn’t translate into much playing time at the one. Thus far Hardy has responded to the challenge by making himself into a potent off-ball threat but the offseason trades for Klay Thompson and Quentin Grimes, and the signing of Spencer Dinwiddie could make for a logjam at the shooting guard position.
Dante Exum’s wrist injury and its likely lengthy recovery time change the calculus a bit for Hardy, who could move up a notch on the depth chart in Exum’s absence. While Kidd has demonstrated that he will give minutes to a young player on a win-now team, as shown by Dereck Lively II’s early-career success, he hasn’t shown much willingness to sacrifice team defense for individual development. Hardy is unlikely to draw the tough defensive assignments that Kidd often trusted Exum with, which could cost him some time on the court. That said, the team’s improvement on the defensive end after trading for Daniel Gafford and signing Naji Marshall gives Kidd more ways to hide weak individual defenders, and a safety net at the rim if Hardy’s man does get by him.
Best Case Scenario
Makes a case for his candidacy as the 32 year-old Irving’s heir apparent next to Luka in the Mavs’ backcourt for years to come. A more realistic expectation might be that he excels playing a similar part as he did on last year’s Finals team, while somehow finding room to grow within it. Building on the potential he’s shown as a passer and decision-maker would be a natural next step, although for most young guards that journey is beset with growing pains that the championship-minded Mavs likely cannot afford to weather. Improves his touch around the basket and adds a floater to his toolbox next off-season.
Worst Case Scenario
Earning minutes and trust on a winning team has kept Hardy’s trajectory pointing upward the last two seasons, but his development could stall if he starts to feel confined or frustrated with his role or his minutes. Although the Mavericks’ guard depth means that possibility is unlikely to hurt the team’s immediate goals, the veterans currently competing with Hardy for playing time will not be around forever.
Until Hardy builds out a more complete arsenal of scoring moves, smart NBA defenses could adjust to his game and render him ineffective. That’s unlikely, as the Mavs’ spacing should get Hardy the room he needs to get his shot off. Opponents will have a difficult time sending a second defender Hardy’s way with Luka, Kyrie, or Klay on the court.
Overall
While it’s true that Kidd will have his work cut out for him as he integrates Hardy’s continued growth into the team’s championship goals, he has a long track record of shepherding young talent by putting those players in position to succeed, from stars like Luka, Jalen Brunson and Giannis Antetokuonmpo to more raw prospects like Josh Green. Kidd also picked his spots to challenge those players beyond their capabilities, and Exum’s injury provides a window to push Hardy a bit. The need to secure favorable playoff positioning in a stacked Western Conference leaves little room for experimentation in the lineup, which puts pressure on Hardy to keep stepping up.
The upcoming season actually presents more than one big question for Hardy. His success and youth portend a bright future in the league but will it be in Dallas? If general manager Nico Harrison finds himself looking for help at the trade deadline, Hardy should be an attractive piece for nearly any team across the trade table. Whether or not Hardy finishes the year in a Maverick uniform, Harrison will have some decisions to make as the guard will also enter the offseason as a restricted free agent.