Explaining the NBA Cup and Dallas Mavericks legitimate chance of advancing to the knockout rounds

Now that Dallas finds themselves in the mix to advance, lets dive into how this all works

The NBA is trying its hardest to build its in-season tournament, now known as the “Emirates NBA Cup”, into something great. But beyond the bright courts and incessant branding, the NBA Cup doesn’t have much of an identity yet. In Dallas, last year we didn’t even get to see our specialty floor due to safety concerns. However, following the Dallas Mavericks 132-91 drubbing of the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday, Dallas has officially been christened with the experience. Beyond the obvious of it being a great regular season win, there was an added importance of Tuesday’s win, as it kept the Mavericks in contention to advance to the knockout rounds. Let’s get into how.

The group stage, explained

The Eastern and Western conferences each were split into three groups for group play, boldly named “Group A”, “Group B”, and “Group C”. The 15 teams in each conference were randomly drawn for their group. They play a round robin style tournament in group play, where each team plays four games, one against each of the other teams in their group.

Upon completion of the group stage, 8 teams (four from each conference) will advance to the single elimination knockout rounds. Each of the group winners gets a guaranteed spot, while one Eastern Conference team and one Western Conference team will earn a “wildcard” spot. This wildcard spot will likely come down to tiebreakers. While head-to-head matchups will determine tiebreakers within the group, the first tiebreaker used for teams not in the same group is point differential. That’s why you could see teams doing things at the end of games you wouldn’t normally see. For example, Luka Doncic played halfway into the 4th quarter of the Pelicans game, where the margin was over 30 for the entire quarter. The Mavs tried to run up the margin, since it’ll be used in a potential tiebreaker.

Once the teams are determined, the top seeded team in each conference will play the wildcard team, while the two seed will match up against the three seed. From there, the final four teams remaining will meet in Las Vegas on December 14th to determine who will play for the Cup championship on December 17th. The winning team will receive the NBA Cup, while each player on the winning team will earn a $1 million bonus.

Current standings

With the Mavs win against the Pelicans on Tuesday, they’ve leaped into second place in their group. They are in second due to their point differential being better than the Nuggets’ is, although that will be resolved on Friday when Dallas & Denver square off in an elimination contest. There are still four more NBA Cup dates remaining before the knockout rounds (11/22, 11/26, 11/29 & 12/3).

In the wildcard standings, Portland currently holds the 4th spot, but they haven’t played their second Cup game yet. Dallas currently occupies the 5th spot, but they are in the best shape out of anyone who is 1-1 in the West. Dallas is +28 in the point differential over 6th place OKC, meaning they have a lot of buffer room in that department moving forward.

Dallas’ paths to the knockout stages

First and foremost, Dallas will not advance to the knockout rounds unless they win their next two NBA Cup games. The first of those comes on Friday night in Denver, while the second of those is against the already-eliminated Memphis Grizzlies on December 3rd. None of the other stuff matters unless they win both games.

The Mavericks win Group C if…

Dallas beats Denver & Memphis

Golden State loses to New Orleans (Friday) & Denver (December 3rd)

This is the simplest way for Dallas to get through, albeit the most unlikely. Because Dallas lost to Golden State already, they will not win a tiebreaker between the two teams for the group. Therefore, in order for Dallas to automatically advance, Golden State would have to lose out. Given what we just saw on Tuesday, I’d call it “unlikely” that Golden State trips up in New Orleans. However, strange things happen sometimes, so we’ll keep our eyes peeled.

The Mavericks advance to the knockout rounds if…

Dallas beats Denver & Memphis

Dallas maintains the best point differential among wildcard contenders

The far more likely scenario is that Dallas will be eliminated from Group C contention on Friday, if the Warriors beat the Pels. If/when that happens, Dallas will have one path through to the knockout rounds, which is by being 3-1 and having the best point differential among Western Conference wildcard teams. The unnerving part about that is Dallas necessarily control its own destiny on December 3rd, because they’re the second Western Conference game to tip that night. And while they could be 3-1 with a huge margin, there will be teams that tip off after the Mavericks do that will have the chance to overtake them, since they will know what they have to do in order to advance. The margins will most certainly change between now and then, but if the Mavericks win in Denver, we’ll have to go through these scenarios in depth leading up to the final night of NBA Cup play on December 3rd.

I’m very interested in the idea of the NBA Cup as a whole, but I can’t tell yet if it’s genuine interest or more being interested in it as a bit. Either way, I’m excited to see Friday’s game in Denver play out, as it will provide us with a lot of clarity for how the rest for this thing will go. Let us know in the comments if you’re interested in the NBA Cup, like me. If you are not, what would it take to get you interested?