The second year center surprised his rookie season, and can build on that to place himself in real conversations this season.
It was a short 12 months ago that we were asking whether Dereck Lively II could earn head coach Jason Kidd’s trust to get consistent minutes on a team trying to making it back to the playoffs. Well past those questions now we return wondering whether the young center can build on his rookie success to be one of the most impactful center’s in the league.
The 20-year old Lively exploded out of the gate last year. While he always possessed this sort of potential, a glance at his numbers during his lone season at Duke didn’t necessarily hint at this immediate production. Rather than worrying about Lively earning playing time from Kidd, he quickly became a key part of the night to night success and one of the most important players on their path to an NBA Finals appearance. Now he’ll turn his attention to building on that momentum, avoiding any sophomore slump, in what is likely to be a larger role this season.
Big question
Can Lively make an All-Defense team in his second season? There are several big men he’ll have to contend with to find a spot on either team. But at his highest potential it should be within discussion. That is if his game progresses to the extent that Kidd gives him a full time starting job and the accompanying minutes.
“Everyone wants to see me shoot,” Lively stated during a break at his alma mater Duke’s Pro Devil’s weekend. “But I wanna own the paint before I can shoot threes”.
This should be a sigh of relief to Mavericks fans. Not that Lively shouldn’t work consistently to expand his game. Media and fans tracked last season that the young center’s outside shot was progressing, leading all the way to his made three in the NBA Finals this summer. That is an exciting prospect, a new weapon to diversify his game. But a focus on filling out his post play should be the foundation of what he does in Dallas, particularly playing alongside Luka Doncic. Honing that skillset could make him one of the best in the game. Too often young players that find success early try to focus on flashier skillsets (like being a 7-footer with a three point shot) to get to the next level. One of Lively’s most important traits already has been his self-awareness and willingness to play the role he was drafted to play in this system.
So what does that look like in year two? On offense Lively would be smart to continue developing his passing game from the nail, being the pressure release to the inevitable aggressive double teams that Doncic and Kyrie Irving will see. Lively’s ability to be a quality decision maker at the free throw line, either taking one power dribble to the rim or kicking to Klay Thompson or PJ Washington is what will take the offense to the next level. On defense Lively can get stronger, diversifying which matchups he can disrupt in the lane. He is a fluid athlete and maintaining his quickness while developing a frame prepared to take the physical toll of the position will be key. He has already shown he can anchor a contender defense, and now he needs to expand on his versatility.
Best case scenario
In year two Lively builds on his impact as one of if not the most efficient scorers at the rim. Kidd gives him full time starting duties and, with the accompanying health, Lively takes the 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game he averaged in his rookie season and bumps those to 12 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks per game. Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, and Victor Wembanyama are the only three players last season to reach that mark. Is that a high bar for Lively to reach? Yes, but the potential should be there if his minutes near 30 per game like those players. Last season he averaged 23.5 minutes.
In terms of expanding his game, best case is developing several moves through traffic. There were moments in the playoffs where teams focused on eliminating the Mavericks’ lob threat, effectively shutting off any scoring opportunity for Lively and Daniel Gafford. Lively has the finesse and coordination to load up a tool bag of moves that allows him to still be part of the offense even when defenses try to eliminate Doncic and Irving penetration. And echoing above, his decision making will mature and may prove the most deadly weapon this season in Dallas.
Worst case scenario
All worst case scenarios should be focused on health alone, but given Lively’s history with injury anything that doesn’t allow him opportunity on the floor hurts in both the long and short term. Lively battled injury prior to his time in the NBA, and last season he had challenges both in the regular and post season. Availability is the best ability etc etc.
For his development it would be concerning if Lively came out focusing on elements of his offensive game that aren’t ready or are unnecessary (like a three-point shot). That isn’t to say he shouldn’t continue to build that craft, but it doesn’t need to be rushed. Too often we’ve seen players in Dallas believe they are something they aren’t, and that destroys the chemistry on the floor.
On defense last season Lively did a far better job avoiding fouls while still defending the rim at a solid clip. It would be easy for a young big, teeming with confidence, to start chasing blocks and get overly-aggressive; trying to do more than necessary. These are the kinds of things that could keep Lively off the floor. The good news is we know Lively’s mindset already and shouldn’t spend too much time worrying he is getting ahead of himself.
Season goal
Goals have mostly been stated above. I’d like to see Lively pass the 65-game mark in the regular season and start in 90-percent of them. For reference, last season he played in 55 games and started 42. This isn’t a drastic increase in games played, but this would tell me he’s relatively healthy and has gained the full trust of Kidd to be the starter.
Overall
Lively’s potential is perhaps the most exciting aspect, outside of the addition of Klay Thompson, of the team entering next season. The Mavericks had a decade long journey searching for their permanent big man and found him in what felt like an unlikely person at the time. Hindsight really tells us it was him all along. He possesses everything Doncic needs in a young center running mate, and has the maturity to be a staple in Dallas for a long time. The key now is to build on a successful rookie season, confirm it wasn’t a fluke, and move into the conversation of best young big man in the league.