Can Dallas reignite Dante Exum’s inferno?

A key regular season piece one year ago saw a substantial minutes decrease in the playoffs

Coming into the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks campaign, expectations for Dante Exum were awfully low. The former number 5 overall pick had just spent 2 years in Europe rebuilding his confidence and game. Back in the NBA on a two-year, $6 million deal, Exum worked his way into being a key piece of an NBA Finals team, an incredible turnaround from where his career had previously been. On the season, Dante averaged nearly 8 points per game in under 20 minutes per game. It was immediately clear that Exum was a valuable player for Dallas on one of the best-value contracts in the entire NBA.

Exum’s impact was more pronounced outside of the traditional box score. Exum produced 2.9 Win Shares last year, per Basketball Reference, which was 7th on the team and within half a share of 4th (Daniel Gafford). Dallas was +10.8 points per 100 possessions with Exum on the floor, compared to -1.2 when he was off-court. The +12 on/off rating that Exum had was not only his career best, but he also LED THE TEAM in that stat, 2.5 points better than the next best, Luka Doncic. He made more than a few clutch three pointers late in games. At times, it felt like it was Exum who was the secret ingredient for this Mavs team.

However, after a rough opening-round series against the Clippers where his shot left him, his minutes became awfully inconsistent in the playoffs. If you take the 82-game sample, Exum is an invaluable piece to the team. Using the 16-game sample, he might just platoon with some of the other backup guards. So, will the real Dante Exum please stand up?

Biggest Question

Exum played in all 55 games for which he was available in the 2023-24 regular season. It was abundantly clear that Exum was a needed part in the rotation, a connecting piece who kept things moving offensively and guarded well enough on the defensive end. He shot 49% from 3 in the regular season. Forty-nine! Even with it being on only 2 attempts per game, he made shots at a clip that made defenses respect it and guard him.

The players and coaching staff consistently talked about the trust they had last year, and Exum noted it. From after the April 8th win against the Rockets, where Exum hit a game-tying 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT:

(On the trust from Dončić and Kyrie Irving…)

“It’s big. I think it goes back to it’s happened a lot throughout the season where I miss one shot and they’ll come back and be like yeah, ‘Shoot the next one. Shoot the next one.’ I think it’s in those big moments and you need to knock one down it kind of reminds you of the times that they’ve had your back.

You might also remember a few weeks before that, when Dante hit the go ahead 3 in Sacramento to beat the Kings, he had missed his previous four shots from the floor before the final make. The trust everyone had in him ensured that the fifth shot was going up whenever the chance presented itself, and Exum paid it off with a make.

In the playoffs, everything took a dive. Exum shot 36% from the floor, and that’s buoyed by him hitting 35% of his one 3 pointer attempted per game. The leash was shorter, as Exum saw his minutes slashed down to 7 per game. It came as a surprise to a lot of those who have any sort of familiarity with European hoops, as Exum played in some bonkers atmospheres with Partizan.

Exum’s outlook this year will be determined by whether or not he has the trust of Jason Kidd and the rest of the coaching staff. Luckily, since the Finals he has gotten to play in the Olympics, where he averaged 11 points & 4 assists in the 3 games he played for Australia. The shot from 3 wasn’t great, but it was very small sample size at 2/7 (28.6%). However, at 48.3% from the field, he was efficient enough. That stretch of basketball could do a world of help for his mental game, as getting the playoffs out of his head can’t be a bad thing.

Best case scenario

Exum slots in first or second in that group and finds himself in essentially the same role as last season. What made Exum such a great piece last year was his ability to fit with any lineup. He fit so well alongside both Luka and Kyrie, both separately or in 3 guard lineups.

Dante could also potentially fit nicely next to new addition Quentin Grimes. The defensive abilities of Grimes, Exum’s playmaking and versatility and one of Kyrie or Luka would make for a nice backcourt group. Hopefully we get the chance to see it this year.

If we’re being greedy, Exum could also stand to gain by shooting more, especially from 3. Even if his percentage dropped by 25%, he would be a more effective shooter by hitting 37% of 4 threes per game (4.44 expected points) than the 49% he hit last year on only 2 attempts (2.94 expected points). The addition of Klay Thompson could potentially open up some space for Dante to get a couple more shots up per game.

Worst case scenario

We know that Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will start, but beyond that there could be 5 players competing for minutes at guard. Exum, Jaden Hardy, Quentin Grimes and Spencer Dinwiddie will all feel like they deserve minutes, and AJ Lawson with a good camp could be in that mix, too. The worst case for Exum is that he slots in at 4th in that group, which would cause him to never really get the minutes he needs to catch the rhythm of the season.

Season goals

1. Stay healthy. The 55 games Dante appeared in last season were the most NBA games he’s played in a season since 2016-17, his 3rd year in the league. Any lengthy injury would obviously derail his year regardless of how he looks early on. The guard depth on this team is seen as a strength. Any real time missed could set Exum back far enough to where his role would be diminished.
2. Earn a pay raise. Being the connecting piece that he is, there’s certainly a world where Exum plays well enough that Dallas feels they can’t lose him. He’s a glue guy that is willing to do the little things that contribute to winning basketball. Every team needs that, and Exum could continue to be that in Dallas with another strong year.

Overall

Last year, Dante Exum proved that he belonged in the NBA. Now entering the last year of his deal with Dallas, it’s time for him to elevate again. He’s in the advantageous position of getting to play next to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on a regular basis. The role Exum carved out for himself is stable and important to Dallas’ success, as we saw last year. If he can continue to take advantage of his opportunities once again, he’ll earn himself a raise moving forward. With relative health, Dante’s inferno should be fired up once again in 2024-25.