When Irving plays, he dominates; that should continue in 2024-2025.
When the Dallas Mavericks traded for Kyrie Irving at the 2023 trade deadline, General Manager Nico Harrison knew he was taking a risk. But Dallas was desperate for a Robin to Luka Doncic’s Batman, and the opportunity to acquire the controversial and mercurial Irving at a discounted price was too good an opportunity to pass up. Still, many Maverick fans (this writer included) had understandable concerns about going all in for such a volatile asset. There were worries about his age, health, and off-court antics. It was easy to envision the move blowing up in the Mavericks’ faces.
A year and a half later, most of those concerns can be put to bed. Irving has fit perfectly with Doncic; he’s conducted himself professionally; his teammates adore him; and he played a major role in Dallas’s first trip to the NBA Finals in 13 years. The Kyrie Irving era in Dallas has been nothing short of a rip-roaring success, and the three-year contract he signed (for less than the max) last offseason is looking like a bargain.
This wasn’t always the case. Dallas collapsed after trading for Irving in 2023, missing the playoffs and tanking to retain the draft pick that became Dereck Lively II. Irving got hurt early in the 2023-2024 season and missed significant time. Availability has been the biggest thing holding Irving back throughout his career, and there were legitimate worries about an aging, injury-prone co-star tied to Doncic.
But Irving got healthy and started playing his best basketball. The rest is history; the Mavericks made the NBA Finals. If Dallas wants to get back there and win the whole thing, they’ll need the best version of Kyrie Irving to do it.
Big question
Health is the obvious one for Irving. He played just 58 games last season and is averaging 50 games played over the past four seasons. Heck, he’s nursing a hand injury as I type this. As an undersized guard at age 32, Irving is unfortunately at a stage in his career where injuries are a bit of a foregone conclusion. He will certainly miss time in 2024; the Mavericks hope he can keep those absences to a minimum and play at least 65 games. If he can, Dallas could contend for the top spot in the Western Conference.
I want to add a second Big Question here. The basketball brilliance of Kyrie Irving cannot be debated, and his performance last season gives every indication that he’s still an All-Star-level talent. Irving’s shooting, handle, playmaking, and finishing remain elite.
But there was one troublesome dip in 2023-2024: Irving posted career-worst rim and free-throw rates. Just 14% of Irving’s field-goal attempts came within 0-3 feet of the basket, and he averaged just 3.6 free-throw attempts per game. Now, some of the free-throw issues can be chalked up to treatment from referees and Irving’s desire to finish shots instead of hunting calls. However, Irving has always been this player, and the sharp decline in foul shots is more than officiating bias.
Will this trend continue in 2024-2025? And how worrisome is it? Despite the dip in rim and free-throw attempts, Irving remained a top-tier offensive player. His floater, midrange, and three-point shooting are so good that he can withstand a drop-off in those other areas. But a fully actualized version of Irving, one who puts pressure on the rim and gets to the line, would make the Maverick offense unstoppable. It would be cool if those numbers revert closer to his career norm, though this could be the aging curve and early decline setting in.
Best case scenario
Irving has his healthiest season since his Cleveland days and avoids any kind of prolonged injury. He continues to dominate as a three-level scorer and effective secondary playmaker alongside Doncic. Though not expected to be a defensive stopper, Irving plays with effort and intensity and contributes to an above-average defense. He avoids off-court issues and remains a respected leader in the locker room.
Better still, Irving makes it a point to get to the rim and free-throw line more often. We see those numbers take an uptick, and Irving puts together his best overall season in Dallas. He makes the All-Star team and maybe even vies for an All-NBA spot.
Worst case scenario
Injuries get the better of Irving and he’s forced to miss extended time. When he plays, he’s clearly lost a step. The concerns about his rim frequency and foul drawing intensify, and his jump shooting takes a hit, too.
Irving grows somewhat disgruntled or makes a controversial statement to the media. The networks make it a 24-hour news cycle piece. The noise acts as a distraction for the team, and Dallas’s vaunted locker room chemistry evaporates. I think this is incredibly unlikely, but, given Irving’s history, it’s within the range of outcomes.
Season goal
The Mavericks’ goal this year is to win the NBA title; I’m sure Irving shares the same desire. To do that, he must stay healthy and focused and lead by example. Irving is past the point in his career where individual accolades matter, but making the All-Star and/or All-NBA teams would be a great indication that he’s doing what needs to be done. If Irving replicates his 2023-2024 season while playing 7-10 more games, his season (and the Mavericks’) will be successful.
Overall
No matter what you may think about Kyrie Irving, the ability to watch him play basketball for the Mavericks is a gift. He is one of the most aesthetically pleasing and exhilarating players to ever lace them up. No matter what happens this season, I’m going to enjoy watching Irving hoop. His presence on the roster elevates Dallas’s ceiling exponentially. How high that ceiling grows depends on how often Irving suits up and how much more elite play he has left in the tank. In the Finals against Boston, Irving seemed to run out of gas. Dallas will need him at his best for the long haul to get where everyone wants to go.